Image of area around flow front

This map uses a satellite image acquired in March 2014 (provided by Digital Globe) as a base to show the area around the front of the June 27th lava flow. The area of the flow on October 6, 2014, at 12:15 AM is shown in pink, while widening and advancement of the flow as mapped on October 8 at 10:20 PM is shown in red. The flow front advanced about 200 m (220 yd) since our October 6, 2014, overflight. This puts the flow front about 1.7 km (1.1 mi) upslope from AP‘A‘ā Street, as measured along the path of steepest-descent.

The solid blue line with the arrowhead shows the projected path of the flow over the next 10 days (to October 16), based on the steepest-descent path and the average advance rate of 120 m/day (130 yd/day) achieved since September 29. The amount of lava erupted from the June 27th vent, and the advance rate of the resulting lava flow, have been variable. The flow could speed up or slow down; the flow front could stall again, and a new active flow front could start again farther upslope; or the flow could stop altogether. Thus, this projection is subject to change.

The dotted blue line shows the steepest-descent path, calculated from a 1983 digital elevation model (DEM; for calculation details, see http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1264/), that the flow is projected to follow. Steepest-descent path analysis is based on the assumption that the DEM perfectly represents the earth's surface. DEMs, however, are not perfect, so the dotted blue line indicates an approximate flow path direction.