Predicted potential exposure of migrating waterfowl to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus through 2022
![charts and maps illustrating the predicted potential exposure of migrating waterfowl to avian influenza](https://d9-wret.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/assets/palladium/production/s3fs-public/styles/full_width/public/media/images/McDuie_2024_predicting-HPAIv-exposure-migratory-waterfowl.jpg?itok=FCbv1DRK)
Detailed Description
Predicted potential exposure of migrating waterfowl to HPAIv.
(A) Projected probability of HPAIv exposure of all migratory waterfowl through 2022 (Canadian Food Inspection Service (CFIA), 2023; U.S. Department of Agriculture APHIS, 2023), modeled using historical movement patterns from GPS tracking (2015–22).
(B) Potential exposure by flyway (AF = Atlantic Flyway, PF = Pacific Flyway), migratory (Migr.) status, and waterfowl taxonomic group. Proportions were calculated based on the number of birds tracked on each calendar day.
(C) Monthly predicted geographic progression of HPAIv, spread by migratory waterfowl, through 2022. Initial potential exposures of individuals to HPAIv (red dots) occurred where individuals occupied or transited counties with active outbreaks (±5d of known detection in the county). Progression and subsequent exposures were modelled via movement of the initial exposed individuals. When previously unexposed (‘susceptible’) birds were located within 10km of exposed birds, they were hence considered exposed via ‘bird-to-bird’ exposure (orange dots).
Sources/Usage
Public Domain.