USGS forecasts 44 percent of Florida’s west coast to experience inundation from Helene
Nearly all of Florida’s west coast projected to become eroded and overwashed
Updated on 9/25/24 at 9:35am:
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – U.S. Geological Survey experts project that Hurricane Helene, expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast Thursday, will bring significant coastal change.
According to the newly-updated USGS coastal change forecast, 44 percent of the sandy beaches on Florida’s west coast may become inundated—meaning continuously covered by ocean water—from Helene. This number dropped from Tuesday's forecast of 94 percent of beachfront being inundated, after an update in Helene's projected path.
Inundation is the most severe level of coastal change and can cause flooding behind sand dunes that may impact coastal communities.
USGS experts estimate Helene’s waves and surge have the potential to cause 100 percent of all ocean-facing beaches in Florida to experience erosion and 95 percent to experience overwash. Overwash occurs when water levels reach higher than the top of dunes. When a beach is overwashed, sand can be pushed and deposited inland, causing significant changes to coastal landscapes and blocking roadways. Overwash can reduce the height of protective sand dunes, alter beach profiles, and leave areas behind the dunes more vulnerable to future storms.
“The coastal change forecast for Helene's impact to the Florida west coast is significant because Helene is predicted to be a large and powerful storm with high waves and storm surge, even if it stays offshore,” said Kara Doran, a USGS supervisory physical scientist who works on the coastal change forecast. “With Florida's low elevation and this significant forecast, we might see more flooding immediately behind dunes and into beachside communities.”
Doran explained that Helene poses more threat to Florida’s coastline than any previous storm in the 2024 hurricane season so far.
According to the National Hurricane Center, Helene may bring life-threatening storm surge along with hurricane-force winds, and heavy rain.
This USGS coastal change forecast for Helene is a worst case scenario that can provide vital insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.
USGS coastal change forecasts will continue to be updated (here: https://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazardsportal/ui/alias/ptc92024) as the storm approaches land and real-time coastal change forecasts for individual locations along the coast are available in the Total Water Level and Coastal Change Forecast Viewer.
As the USGS continues to take all appropriate preparedness actions in response to Helene, those in the storm’s projected path can visit Ready.gov for tips on creating emergency plans and putting together an emergency supply kit.
Learn more about USGS hurricane science.
The USGS provides science for a changing world. Learn more at USGS.gov or follow us on Facebook @USGeologicalSurvey, YouTube @USGS, Instagram @USGS, or Twitter @USGS.
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