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Wave-Driven vs. Sea-Level-Driven Coastal Change

Coastal change is influenced by a variety of processes, including wave action, sediment movement, storm overwash, and erosion of dunes and cliffs. While past shoreline retreat on open-ocean coasts has primarily been driven by waves, the study finds that sea-level rise is expected to play an increasingly dominant role in the future as global temperatures continue to climb.

Until now, few models have been capable of accurately and efficiently simulating the wide range of factors that drive long-term coastal change. In this study, new modeling overcomes these limitations by integrating historical satellite data, wave and sea-level projections, and large-scale shoreline-change patterns to predict how coastlines will evolve under different climate scenarios.

A Retreating Coastline

Using this advanced modeling approach, researchers found that under a 1.0-meter rise in sea level scenario, 63% of shorelines along the South Atlantic Coast are projected to retreat beyond the current extent of sandy beaches. Under a 2.0-meter rise, that number jumps to 94%, meaning nearly all sandy shorelines in the region could disappear or shift significantly inland.

These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems to rising seas. Without large-scale interventions—such as beach nourishment, dune restoration, or seawalls—many beaches could face severe erosion, leaving less natural protection against storm surges and flooding.

Implications for the Future

The study points to the urgency of planning for long-term coastal resilience. Coastal communities and policymakers will need to weigh difficult decisions about adaptation strategies, from managed retreat to costly engineering solutions.

By providing a scalable, data-driven model that captures historical shoreline behavior and future uncertainties, the new study offers a powerful tool for predicting coastal change and guiding climate adaptation efforts. As sea levels continue to rise, understanding where and how shorelines will retreat will be critical for protecting people, infrastructure, and ecosystems along the U.S. South Atlantic coastline. 

Read the study, Scalable, data-assimilated models predict large-scale shoreline response to waves and sea-level rise, in Scientific Reports.