Publications

A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is currently in development in the Pacific Northwest. We have taken a two‐stage approach to EEW: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong‐motion data with the Earthquake Alarm Systems (ElarmS) seismic early warning package and (2) the triggering of geodetic modeling modules using Global Navigation Satellite Systems data that help pro

Post-earthquake financial decision-making is a realm beyond that of many people. In the immediate aftermath of a damaging earthquake, billions of dollars of relief, recovery, and insurance funds are in the balance through new financial instruments that allow those with resources to hedge against disasters and those at risk to limit their earthquake losses and receive funds for response and recover

Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in

The southern San Andreas Fault in California has hosted two historic surface-rupturing earthquakes, the ~M7 1812 Wrightwood earthquake and the ~M7.9 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake (e.g., Sieh, 1978; Jacoby et al., 1988). Numerous paleoseismic studies have established chronologies of historic and prehistoric earthquakes at sites along the full length of the 1857 rupture (e.g., Sieh, 1978; Scharer et al

The magnitude 4.0 earthquake that occurred on October 16, 2012, near Hollis Center and Waterboro in southwestern Maine surprised and startled local residents but caused only minor damage. A two-person U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) team was sent to Maine to conduct an intensity survey and document the damage. The only damage we observed was the failure of a chimney and plaster cracks in two buildin

We invert Global Positioning System (GPS) velocity data to estimate fault slip rates in California using a fault‐based crustal deformation model with geologic constraints. The model assumes buried elastic dislocations across the region using Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3 (UCERF3) fault geometries. New GPS velocity and geologic slip‐rate data were compiled by the UCERF3 d

Stratigraphic, sedimentologic (including CT 3D X-ray tomography scans), foraminiferal, and radiocarbon analyses show that at least six of seven abrupt peat-to-mud contacts in cores from a tidal marsh at Talbot Creek (South Slough, Coos Bay), record sudden subsidence (relative sea-level rise) during great megathrust earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. Data for one contact are insufficient

Subduction zones contain many of Earth’s most remarkable geologic structures, from the deepest oceanic trenches to glacier-covered mountains and steaming volcanoes. These environments formed through spectacular events: Nature’s largest earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions are born here.

Several lines of earthquake evidence indicate that the lithospheric plate is broken under the load of the island of Hawai`i, where the geometry of the lithosphere is circular with a central depression. The plate bends concave downward surrounding a stress-free hole, rather than bending concave upward as with past assumptions. Earthquake focal mechanisms show that the center of load stress and the

The September 16, 2015 Illapel, Chile earthquake triggered a large tsunami, causing both economic losses and fatalities. To study the coastal effects of this earthquake, and to understand how such hazards might be accurately modeled in the future, different finite fault models of the Illapel rupture are used to define the initial condition for tsunami simulation. The numerical code Non-hydrostatic

Likelihood testing of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas has identified the parameters that optimize the forecasting ability of smoothed seismicity models and quantified the recent temporal stability of the spatial seismicity patterns. Use of the most recent 1-year period of earthquake data and use of 10–20-km smoothing distances produced the greatest likelihood. The likelihood that the lo

We present ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for computing natural log means and standard deviations of vertical-component intensity measures (IMs) for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. The equations were derived from a global database with M 3.0–7.9 events. The functions are similar to those for our horizontal GMPEs. We derive equations for the primary M- and distan