Publications

Earthquake recurrence requires interseismic fault restrengthening which results from solid state deformation in room-temperature friction and indentation experiments. In contrast exhumed fault zones show solution-transport processes such as pressure solution and contact overgrowths influence fault zone properties . In the absence of fluid flow, overgrowths are driven by gradients in surface curvat

The fault history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault (SAF) in the San Gorgonio Pass region, along with the reconstructed geomorphology surrounding this fault strand, reveals the important role of the left-lateral Pinto Mountain fault in the regional fault strand switching. The Mill Creek strand has 7.1–8.7 km total slip. Following this displacement, the Pinto Mountain fault offset t

We describe a technique to estimate the seismic moment of acoustic emissions and other extremely small seismic events. Unlike previous calibration techniques, it does not require modeling of the wave propagation, sensor response, or signal conditioning. Rather, this technique calibrates the recording system as a whole and uses a ball impact as a reference source or empirical Green’s function. To c

In November 2013, a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system near Azle, Texas. Here we assess whether it is plausible that human activity caused these earthquakes. Analysis of both lake and groundwater variations near Azle shows that no significant stress changes were associated with the shallow water table before or during the earthquake sequence. In contrast, pore-pressure

The ongoing, dramatic increase in seismicity in the central United States that began in 2009 is believed to be the result of injection‐induced seismicity (Ellsworth, 2013). Although the basic mechanism for activation of slip on a fault by subsurface fluid injection is well established (Healy et al., 1968; Raleighet al., 1976; Nicholson and Wesson, 1992; McGarr et al., 2002; Ellsworth, 2013), the o

We derive time-dependent, renewal-model earthquake probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-model probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exc

A methodology is presented for computing elastic‐rebound‐based probabilities in an unsegmented fault or fault system, which involves computing along‐fault averages of renewal‐model parameters. The approach is less biased and more self‐consistent than a logical extension of that applied most recently for multisegment ruptures in California. It also enables the application of magnitude‐dependent ape

Building a new model, especially one used for policy purposes, takes considerable time, effort, and resources. In justifying such expenditures, one inevitably spends a lot of time denigrating previous models. For example, in pitching the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), criticisms of the previous model included fault‐segmentation assumpti

Two hand-dug trenches at the Schist Creek site on the Denali fault system in central Alaska exposed evidence of four surface-rupturing earthquakes on the basis of upward terminations of fault strands and at least one buried, scarp-derived colluvial wedge. Limited radiocarbon ages provide some constraints on times of the ruptures. The youngest rupture (PE1) likely occurred about 200–400 years ago,

The first U.S. Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Dunbar and Weaver, 2008) was prepared at the request of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The NTHMP is a partnership formed between federal and state agencies to reduce the impact of tsunamis through hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The assessment was conducted in response to a 2005 joint report by the Sub-Committe

The 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake caused more than 8000 fatalities and widespread building damage in central Nepal. The Italian Space Agency’s COSMO–SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite acquired data over Kathmandu area four days after the earthquake and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 SAR satellite for larger area nine days after th

Rapid and accurate characterization of an earthquake source is an extremely important and ever evolving field of research. Within this field, source inversion of the W-phase has recently been shown to be an effective technique, which can be efficiently implemented in real-time. An extension to the W-phase source inversion is presented in which two point sources are derived to better characterize c