2014 Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Forecast

The Gulf of Mexico annual summer hypoxia forecasts are based on average May
total nitrogen loads from the Mississippi River basin for that year. The load
estimate, recently released by USGS, is 4,761 metric tons per day. Based on that
estimate, we predict the area of this summer’s hypoxic zone to be 14,000 square
kilometers (95% credible interval, 8,000 to 20,000) – an “average year”.

Our forecast hypoxic volume is 50 km³ (95% credible interval, 20 to 77).