A stochastic streamflow model of the Platte River at Overton, Odessa, and Grand Island, Nebraska

A stochastic model is developed to simulate flows for three seasons (September through February, March and April, May through August) at Overton, Odessa, and Grand Island, Nebraska on the Platte River. The model preserves the first and second order moment properties of the historical flow series, including significant autocorrelations within each station and cross-correlations between the stations. Higher order moments are preserved by a transformation technique that allows the residuals from the model to be approximately normal. An algorithm is given for simulation of combined-stations flows, and some simulations are carried out to determine the likelihood of specified flow shortages that could be detrimental to the wildlife habitat in the reach of the Platte River between Overton and Grand Island. (USGS)