Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: a preliminary database for the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico coasts

The prediction of coastal evolution is not straightforward. There is no standard methodology, and even the kind of data required to make such predictions are the subject of much scientific debate. Since a viable, quantitative predictive model for coastal evolution is not available. The relative susceptibility of the Nation's coastline to sea-level rise is quantified here at a regional to national scale using basic information on coastal geomorphology, rate of sea-level rise, past shoreline evolution and other factors. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental and conditions, and yields a relative measure of the system's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. This information has immediate application to many of the decisions our society will be making regarding coastal development in both the short- and long-term.