Atmospheric moisture transport and moisture budgets during winter (December-April) simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) are examined and used to simulate streamflow variations in the Sierra Nevada. The RSM was nested in 2"-latitude x 2"-longitude NCEPreanalyzed atmospheric-data fields (as a surrogate for a perfect forecast system operating at the global scale). Precipitation, temperature, and solar insolation simulated by the RSM on a 50-km grid were inputted directly to precipitation-runoff models of the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers in an evaluation of the potential for end-to-end forecasting of streamflow and snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada, near 39"N 120"W. Over the western United States, the RSM captures both patterns and magnitudes of precipitation (e.g., Fig. I illustrates observed and simulated precipitation for winter 1982-83). The RSM has dry biases in the Southeast and over the Gulf of Mexico, but it captures interannual and intraseasonal variations well. During most El Nifios, it simulates a precipitation dipole over the western states with wetter-than-normal conditions in California and drier-than-normal in the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is relatively dry and the southern states are wet, as in observations. The RSM did equally well during La Niiia winters.
