How much trapping effort is needed for early detection of European green crab?

We present a case study using trapping data and species accumulation theory to assess the sampling effort needed to detect species that are rare in habitats sampled as part of the management of invasive European green crab Carcinus maenas on the coast of Washington State and Salish Sea shorelines, such as is desired for early detection of invasive species. In response to detections of green crab on the west coast of North America monitoring efforts, including early detection monitoring, have increased. The goal of invasive species early detection monitoring programs is to detect new infestations soon after introduction so that eradication and quarantine measures can be used to control their spread. However, detection of newly introduced invasive species often occurs after populations are large and well established. The ability to detect newly introduced invasive species is affected by sampling procedures, including how much effort is expended. To assess the level of trapping effort needed to detect green crab and other taxa when they are rare, we calculate sample-based rarefaction curves, total species richness, and estimates of sample completeness. We then use these estimates to describe the relationship between sampling effort and detection at two different spatial scales. Our results suggest that high probability early detection of green crabs or other rare taxa in many coastal waterbodies will require significantly more trapping effort than was expended in 2020. Our analyses further suggest that the effort required to provide for early detection was less at the site-specific spatial scale than at the waterbody scale. However, sample completeness at the site-specific spatial scale was negatively correlated with species richness. Current efforts to look for new green crab populations and to manage existing populations provide an opportunity to look for other invasive organisms that may establish in similar habitats.