Occupancy dynamics of the California Gnatcatcher in southern California

Executive Summary

The Coastal California Gnatcatcher (Polioptila californica californica: “gnatcatcher”) is a resident species restricted to coastal sage scrub habitat in southern California. Listed as federally threatened, the gnatcatcher is subject to multiple threats, including habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation, particularly in association with the increasing frequency of large wildfires. The California Gnatcatcher is a focal species under several habitat conservation plans and is monitored to determine population trends and evaluate the success of the plans in protecting the species.

Historically, gnatcatcher monitoring has been limited in geographic scope and has used differing methodologies, limiting the extent to which findings can be generalized across larger spatial scales and multiple populations. In 2015, we completed the first of an intended series of surveys following a standardized protocol designed to address two broad objectives. First, we sought to determine gnatcatcher occupancy at the regional scale, including habitat from throughout the species’ range in southern California, as well as in two subregions: Orange County and San Diego County, to address specific management objectives within those jurisdictions. In addition, we collected vegetation data to better understand gnatcatcher habitat associations that affect occupancy. In a parallel objective, we evaluated the effect of fire on gnatcatchers and their habitat by comparing occupancy and vegetation characteristics across sites varying in the length of time since the last fire. Data collected in 2020 allowed us to expand the study to include analyses of colonization (sites unoccupied in one year and occupied the next) and extinction (sites occupied in one year but not the next).

In 2020, we surveyed 327 regional points and 180 subregional points each in Orange and San Diego Counties. In addition, we surveyed 95–106 points within 4 postfire categories based on the year of the last fire at each point: before or during 2002 (“unburned”), 2003–06, 2007–10, and 2011–14. We surveyed for gnatcatchers during three area searches centered on each point at 2-week intervals commencing in mid-March. Vegetation data were collected during May–June using a modified point-intercept method along fixed transects.

Shrub and tree cover at our plots was dominated by California sagebrush (Artemisia californica), California buckwheat (Eriogonum fasciculatum), laurel sumac (Malosma laurina), sage (including Salvia mellifera and S. leucophylla), and sunflowers (including Encelia californica, E. farinosa, and Bahiopsis laciniata); however, most of the vegetation at plots consisted of non-native grass and herbaceous plants, indicating a high level of disturbance associated with fire. We documented vegetation differences at the subregional scale indicative of differences in fire history: in Orange County, overall shrub/tree cover was higher and herbaceous cover lower than in San Diego, where three large fires had burned within 17 years of this study. Both woody and herbaceous cover increased between 2016 and 2020 at the regional and two subregional scales, likely a response to above-average precipitation during 2 years preceding the 2020 surveys. Herbaceous vegetation also increased at postfire points; however, woody vegetation cover changed little between 2016 and 2020.

We modeled the effects of vegetation and physical (elevation, distance to Pacific coast, slope) covariates on gnatcatcher occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in the regional, subregional, and postfire datasets. Cover of California sagebrush was the strongest predictor of gnatcatcher occupancy and appeared in the top models for every dataset. California buckwheat was another strong positive predictor of gnatcatcher occupancy in all datasets. Cover of sunflowers was a positive predictor of occupancy in the Orange County subregion, and both sunflowers and sage were positive predictors of occupancy at postfire points. In contrast, laurel sumac was negatively related to gnatcatcher occupancy in postfire habitats, with occupancy unlikely when sumac exceeded 50 percent cover. Herbaceous vegetation, including invasive grass, negatively affected gnatcatcher occupancy regionwide.

Covariates that were strong positive predictors of occupancy were also positive predictors of colonization and (or) negative predictors of extinction, and vice versa. Outside of the positive effects of California sagebrush and California buckwheat, and the negative effect of total herbaceous cover, we identified few covariates influencing colonization. In contrast, we identified many more predictors of extinction, including cover of laurel sumac and grass, which increased extinction risk, and cover of California sagebrush, sunflowers, and bare ground, along with time since last fire, which reduced extinction risk.

We used our modelled estimates of colonization and extinction probabilities to derive occupancy in 2020 based on starting occupancy in 2016. Gnatcatcher occupancy increased in 2020 at regional and subregional scales and in unburned habitat, growing by 19–35 percent since 2016. Among burned sites, occupancy tripled from 2016 to 2020 at points burned during 2011–14 but was unchanged at the 2007–10 postfire points and declined by 28 percent at points burned in 2003–06. The slow recovery of the gnatcatcher population in this latter category, which makes up 16 percent of the suitable habitat in San Diego County, is a matter of conservation concern warranting further attention.

Collectively, our rangewide results reveal a widespread and long-term effect of wildfire on California Gnatcatcher habitat, particularly in San Diego County. These data provide a baseline from which future monitoring can be used to evaluate changes in habitat condition over time and to improve our understanding of the factors and processes influencing gnatcatcher occupancy.