An oilspill risk analysis for the North Atlantic (proposed sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf lease area

An oilspill risk analysis was conducted to determine the relative environmental hazards of developing oil in different regions of the North Atlantic (Proposed Sale 52) Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease area. The probability of spill occurrences, likely movement of oil slicks, and locations of resources vulnerable to spilled oil were analyzed. The times between spill occurrence and contact with various resources were also estimated. The combined results yielded estimates of the overall risks associated with development of the proposed lease area. Assuming that oil exists in the lease area (a 40-percent chance) and depending upon the routes chosen to transport oil from OCS platforms to the shore, the leasing of the tracts proposed for OCS Sale 52 will result in an expected 10.2 oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger). The estimated probability that land will be contacted by one or more oilspills (of 1,000 barrels or larger) that have been at sea less than 30 days is 0.71. If existing transportation of oil in the area is considered, this probability increases greatly, to more than 0.99.