Preliminary national-scale seismic risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the United States

Although the gas pipeline infrastructure in the United States is vulnerable to the seismic hazards of (i) strong ground shaking, and (ii) ground failures induced by surface faulting, liquefaction, or landslides, limited national guidance exists for operators to consistently evaluate the earthquake response of their pipelines. To provide additional information for stakeholders and establish more consistency at a national scale, we attempt to quantify seismic risk for gas transmission pipelines in the conterminous United States using a metric such as average annual loss, which helps readily distinguish geographic areas of high and low relative risk. Specifically, we integrate the 2018 National Pipeline Mapping System, the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model, and several candidate models from the literature for estimating pipeline damage. Through this effort, we highlight major research needs for ultimately reducing the many uncertainties associated with a comprehensive seismic risk assessment of gas pipelines.