Projecting mangrove forest resilience to sea-level rise on a Pacific Island: Species dynamics and ecological thresholds

Mangroves can increase their elevation relative to tidal flooding through biogeomorphic feedbacks but can submerge if rates of sea-level rise are too great. There is an urgent need to understand the vulnerability of mangroves to sea-level rise so local communities and resource managers can implement and prioritize actions. The need is especially pressing for small islands, which have been identified as an area of concern by the IPCC. We developed a generalizable modeling framework for tidal wetlands (WARMER-3) that accounts for species interactions and the belowground processes that dictate soil elevation building relative to sea levels. The model was calibrated with extensive field datasets, including accretion rates derived from 29 soil cores, over 300 forest inventory plots, water level, and elevation. The model included five mangrove tree species and was applied across seven regions around the Pacific Island of Pohnpei, Federated States of Micronesia, where mangrove forest is a critical ecosystem that supports subsistence living for local communities. We explored mangrove resilience and carbon accumulation under six sea-level rise scenarios. We also conducted an analysis to determine the sea-level rise rate threshold above which mangroves would be lost. The results suggest that Pohnpei mangroves can build their elevations relative to low and moderate rates of sea-level rise to prevent submergence, with limited loss of mangrove area through 2150. Under higher sea-level rise rates, however, forest elevation decreased substantially relative to mean sea level and there was extensive loss of mangrove area by that year. Regarding mangrove community composition, for all sea-level rise scenarios, the model predicted a change to increasing relative abundance of flood tolerant species and decreasing relative abundance of high-elevation species, which started to being realized by 2100. Variation in sediment supply, water levels, and elevation capital led to differential vulnerability around the island. We identified a threshold for Pohnpei mangroves where if local sea-level rise rates exceed 7.8 ± 2.2 mm/year they are projected to eventually submerge and be lost. Our modeling framework is novel by addressing both species interactions and critical belowground processes to better understand potential tidal ecosystem responses to sea-level rise.