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Prospective earthquake forecasts at the Himalayan Front after the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha Mainshock

June 29, 2016

When a major earthquake strikes, the resulting devastation can be compounded or even exceeded by the subsequent cascade of triggered seismicity. As the Nepalese recover from the 25 April 2015 shock, knowledge of what comes next is essential. We calculate the redistribution of crustal stresses and implied earthquake probabilities for different periods, from daily to 30 years into the future. An initial forecast was completed before an M 7.3 earthquake struck on 12 May 2015 that enables a preliminary assessment; postforecast seismicity has so far occurred within a zone of fivefold probability gain. Evaluation of the forecast performance, using two months of seismic data, reveals that stress‐based approaches present improved skill in higher‐magnitude triggered seismicity. Our results suggest that considering the total stress field, rather than only the coseismic one, improves the spatial performance of the model based on the estimation of a wide range of potential triggered faults following a mainshock.

Publication Year 2016
Title Prospective earthquake forecasts at the Himalayan Front after the 25 April 2015 M 7.8 Gorkha Mainshock
DOI 10.1785/0220150195
Authors Margaret Segou, Thomas E. Parsons
Publication Type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Series Title Seismological Research Letters
Index ID 70169350
Record Source USGS Publications Warehouse
USGS Organization Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center