Regional and temporal differences in nitrate trends discerned from long-term water quality monitoring data

Riverine nitrate (NO₃) is a well-documented driver of eutrophication and hypoxia in coastal areas. The development of the elevated river NO₃ concentration is linked to anthropogenic inputs from municipal, agricultural, and atmospheric sources. The intensity of these sources has varied regionally, through time, and in response to multiple causes such as economic drivers and policy responses. This study uses long-term water quality, land use, and other ancillary data to further describe the evolution of river NO₃ concentrations at 22 monitoring stations in the United States (U.S.). The stations were selected for long-term data availability and to represent a range of climate and land-use conditions. We examined NO₃ at the monitoring stations, using a flow-weighting scheme meant to account for interannual flow variability allowing greater focus on river chemical conditions. River NO₃ concentration increased strongly during 1945-1980 at most of the stations and have remained elevated, but stopped increasing during 1981-2008. NO₃ increased to a greater extent at monitoring stations in the Midwest U.S. and less so at those in the Eastern and Western U.S. We discuss 20th Century agricultural development in the U.S. and demonstrate that regional differences in NO₃ concentration patterns were strongly related to an agricultural index developed using principal components analysis. This unique century-scale dataset adds to our understanding of long-term NO₃ patterns in the U.S.