Simulation of precipitation by weather-type analysis

A new approach that uses weather-type analysis as a basis for stochastic precipitation modeling was developed and tested for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The weather types permit the identification of weather conditions associated with varying frequencies, intensities, and amounts of precipitation. Weather-type frequencies were used to stochastically simulate precipitation for Philadelphia and to produce estimates that statistically match observed precipitation. A new method that applies climatic-change scenarios to weather-type frequencies to simulate future precipitation was developed.