Simultaneous confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer groundwater flow model

Using the optimization method of Vecchia & Cooley (1987), nonlinear Scheffe??-type confidence intervals were calculated tor the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear widths was not correct for the head intervals. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be offset from, and either larger or smaller than, the linear approximations. Prior information on some transmissivities helps reduce and stabilize the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.