Strain accumulation in the Shumagin Islands: Results of initial GPS measurements

Deformation in the Shumagin seismic gap has been monitored with repeated trilateration (EDM) in the 1980–1987 interval and with the Global Positioning System (GPS) in the 1987–1991 interval. The geodetic network extends for 100-km across the Shumagin Islands to the Alaska Peninsula. Results from the GPS surveys are consistent with those previously reported for the EDM surveys: we failed to detect significant strain accumulation in the N30°W direction of plate convergence. Using the method of simultaneous reduction for position and strain rates, we found the average rate of extension in the direction of plate convergence to be −25±25 nanostrain/yr (nstrain/yr) during the 1987–1991 interval of GPS surveys compared with −20±15 nstrain/yr during the 1981–1987 interval of complete EDM surveys. We found a marginally significant −26±12 nstrain/yr extension rate in the 1981–1991 interval covered by the combined EDM and GPS surveys. Strain rates are higher, but not significantly so, in the part of the network closest to the trench. Spatial variation in the deformation is observed in the 1980–1991 average station velocities, where three of the four stations closest to the trench have an arcward velocity of a few mm/yr. The observed strain rates are an order of magnitude lower than the −200 nstrain/yr rate predicted by dislocation models.