Thermo-hydrologic processes governing supra-permafrost talik dynamics in discontinuous permafrost near Umiujaq (Québec, Canada)

Widespread supra-permafrost talik formation is
currently recognized as a critical mechanism that
could accelerate permafrost thaw in the Arctic
(e.g., Connon et al. 2018; Farquharson et al. 2022).
However, the trajectory of permafrost dynamics
following talik formation may prove difficult to predict.
Physically-based cryohydrogeologic models provide
a powerful tool for understanding processes and
factors controlling talik dynamics and, ultimately, how
permafrost will respond to climate change. Such
models are typically used to represent multiple
non-linear processes relevant for groundwater
systems in cold regions, such as coupled heat and
groundwater movement, including freeze-thaw
dynamics and the effects on the surface energy
balance and the subsurface thermal and hydraulic
properties (Lamontagne-Hallé et al. 2020). Though
cryohydrogeologic modeling advances have been
made in simulating talik dynamics, few applications
have been tested against robust long-term
hydrometeorological and subsurface observations.