Uncertainty in the Great Lakes water balance

This report describes the Great Lakes hydrologic system and methods used to quantify individual components of the water balance. Potential sources of uncertainty are identified and, where appropriate, alternate or additional data, models, and estimation methods suitable for reducing uncertainties are discussed. Finally, approximate uncertainties of all components are identified, compared, and assessed within the context of net basin supply. Results indicate that average uncertainties in monthly estimates of individual water-balance components may range from 1.5 percent to 45 percent. These uncertainties may cause uncertainties in monthly net basin supply estimates of approximately 2,600 ft³/s to 33,500 ft³/s for individual Great Lakes.