Brad Aagaard
Brad Aagaard is a research scientist in the Earthquake Hazards Program.
Ground-motion modeling
- Animations of ground shaking from computer simulations of earthquakes.
- 3D Geologic and Seismic Velocity Model of the San Francisco Bay Region
Software
PyLith crustal deformation modeling software, Computational Infrastructure for Geodynamics.
Professional Experience
Research Geophysicist, USGS, 2003-present
USGS Mendenhall Postdoctoral Scholar, 2001-2003
Education and Certifications
Ph.D., Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, 2000
M.S., Civil Engineering, California Institute of Technology, 1995
B.S., Engineering, Harvey Mudd College, 1994
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 42
Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than w
Authors
Elizabeth S. Cochran, Brad T. Aagaard, Richard M. Allen, Jennifer Andrews, Annemarie S. Baltay, Andrew J. Barbour, Paul Bodin, Benjamin A. Brooks, Angela Chung, Brendan W. Crowell, Doug Given, Thomas C. Hanks, J. Renate Hartog, Egill Hauksson, Thomas H. Heaton, Sara McBride, Men-Andrin Meier, Diego Melgar, Sarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray, Jennifer A. Strauss, Douglas Toomey
A suite of exercises for verifying dynamic earthquake rupture codes
We describe a set of benchmark exercises that are designed to test if computer codes that simulate dynamic earthquake rupture are working as intended. These types of computer codes are often used to understand how earthquakes operate, and they produce simulation results that include earthquake size, amounts of fault slip, and the patterns of ground shaking and crustal deformation. The benchmark ex
Authors
Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall, Brad T. Aagaard, Shuo Ma, Daniel Roten, Kim Olsen, Benchun Duan, Dunyu Liu, Bin Luo, Kangchen Bai, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Kenneth Duru, Thomas Ulrich, Stephanie Wollherr, Zheqiang Shi, Eric Dunham, Sam Bydlon, Zhenguo Zhang, Xiaofei Chen, Surendra N. Somala, Christian Pelties, Josue Tago, Victor Manuel Cruz-Atienza, Jeremy Kozdon, Eric Daub, Khurram Aslam, Yuko Kase, Kyle Withers, Luis Dalguer
Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., MM 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; MM 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; MM 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic ha
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay, Michael Blanpied, Oliver S. Boyd, Richard W. Briggs, Ryan D. Gold, Robert Graves, Stephen H. Hartzell, Sanaz Rezaeian, William J. Stephenson, David J. Wald, Robert A. Williams, Kyle Withers
U.S. Geological Survey National Strong-Motion Project strategic plan, 2017–22
The mission of the National Strong-Motion Project is to provide measurements of how the ground and built environment behave during earthquake shaking to the earthquake engineering community, the scientific community, emergency managers, public agencies, industry, media, and other users for the following purposes: Improving engineering evaluations and design methods for facilities and systems;Provi
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Mehmet Çelebi, Lind Gee, Robert Graves, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Erol Kalkan, Keith L. Knudsen, Nicolas Luco, James Smith, Jamison Steidl, Christopher D. Stephens
Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations
The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our line 4, a
Authors
Gary S. Fuis, Klaus Bauer, Mark R. Goldman, Trond Ryberg, Victoria E. Langenheim, Daniel S. Scheirer, Michael J. Rymer, Joann M. Stock, John A. Hole, Rufus D. Catchings, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo
The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake
The Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the Mw 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations (PGAs) betwee
Authors
Thomas M. Brocher, Annemarie S. Baltay, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Fred F. Pollitz, Jessica R. Murray, Andrea L. Llenos, David P. Schwartz, J. Luke Blair, Daniel J. Ponti, James J. Lienkaemper, Victoria E. Langenheim, Timothy E. Dawson, Kenneth W. Hudnut, David R. Shelly, Douglas S. Dreger, John Boatwright, Brad T. Aagaard, David J. Wald, Richard M. Allen, William D. Barnhart, Keith L. Knudsen, Benjamin A. Brooks, Katherine M. Scharer
Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake
Through discussions between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) following the South Napa earthquake, it was determined that several key decision points would be faced by FEMA for which additional information should be sought and provided by USGS and its partners. This report addresses the four tasks that were agreed to. These tasks are (1) assessmen
Authors
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Thomas M. Brocher, Carol S. Prentice, John Boatwright, Benjamin A. Brooks, Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, Jon Peter B. Fletcher, Jemile Erdem, Charles W. Wicks, Jessica R. Murray, Fred F. Pollitz, John O. Langbein, Jerry L. Svarc, David P. Schwartz, Daniel J. Ponti, Suzanne Hecker, Stephen B. DeLong, Carla M. Rosa, Brenda Jones, Rynn M. Lamb, Anne M. Rosinski, Timothy P. McCrink, Timothy E. Dawson, Gordon G. Seitz, Craig Glennie, Darren Hauser, Todd Ericksen, Dan Mardock, Don F. Hoirup, Jonathan D. Bray, Ron S. Rubin
A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation
We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions, discretization scheme
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, M.G. Knepley, C.A. Williams
Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes
We examine the partition of long‐term geologic slip on the Hayward fault into interseismic creep, coseismic slip, and afterslip. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute expected coseismic slip and afterslip at three alinement array sites for Hayward fault earthquakes with nominal moment magnitudes ranging from about 6.5 to 7.1. We consider how interseismic creep might affect the coseismic slip d
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, James J. Lienkaemper, David P. Schwartz
Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models
Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010
Authors
Robert W. Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion
In situations where seismological data is rare or nonexistent, computer simulations may be used to predict ground motions caused by future earthquakes. This is particularly practical in the case of extreme ground motions, where engineers of special buildings may need to design for an event that has not been historically observed but which may occur in the far-distant future. Once the simulations h
Authors
R. A. Harris, M. Barall, D.J. Andrews, B. Duan, S. Ma, E.M. Dunham, A.-A. Gabriel, Y. Kaneko, Y. Kase, Brad T. Aagaard, D. D. Oglesby, J.-P. Ampuero, T. C. Hanks, N. Abrahamson
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 42
Research to improve ShakeAlert earthquake early warning products and their utility
Earthquake early warning (EEW) is the rapid detection of an earthquake and issuance of an alert or notification to people and vulnerable systems likely to experience potentially damaging ground shaking. The level of ground shaking that is considered damaging is defined by the specific application; for example, manufacturing equipment may experience damage at a lower intensity ground shaking than w
Authors
Elizabeth S. Cochran, Brad T. Aagaard, Richard M. Allen, Jennifer Andrews, Annemarie S. Baltay, Andrew J. Barbour, Paul Bodin, Benjamin A. Brooks, Angela Chung, Brendan W. Crowell, Doug Given, Thomas C. Hanks, J. Renate Hartog, Egill Hauksson, Thomas H. Heaton, Sara McBride, Men-Andrin Meier, Diego Melgar, Sarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray, Jennifer A. Strauss, Douglas Toomey
A suite of exercises for verifying dynamic earthquake rupture codes
We describe a set of benchmark exercises that are designed to test if computer codes that simulate dynamic earthquake rupture are working as intended. These types of computer codes are often used to understand how earthquakes operate, and they produce simulation results that include earthquake size, amounts of fault slip, and the patterns of ground shaking and crustal deformation. The benchmark ex
Authors
Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall, Brad T. Aagaard, Shuo Ma, Daniel Roten, Kim Olsen, Benchun Duan, Dunyu Liu, Bin Luo, Kangchen Bai, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Yoshihiro Kaneko, Alice-Agnes Gabriel, Kenneth Duru, Thomas Ulrich, Stephanie Wollherr, Zheqiang Shi, Eric Dunham, Sam Bydlon, Zhenguo Zhang, Xiaofei Chen, Surendra N. Somala, Christian Pelties, Josue Tago, Victor Manuel Cruz-Atienza, Jeremy Kozdon, Eric Daub, Khurram Aslam, Yuko Kase, Kyle Withers, Luis Dalguer
Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model
For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., MM 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; MM 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; MM 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic ha
Authors
Morgan P. Moschetti, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Mark D. Petersen, Brad T. Aagaard, Annemarie S. Baltay, Michael Blanpied, Oliver S. Boyd, Richard W. Briggs, Ryan D. Gold, Robert Graves, Stephen H. Hartzell, Sanaz Rezaeian, William J. Stephenson, David J. Wald, Robert A. Williams, Kyle Withers
U.S. Geological Survey National Strong-Motion Project strategic plan, 2017–22
The mission of the National Strong-Motion Project is to provide measurements of how the ground and built environment behave during earthquake shaking to the earthquake engineering community, the scientific community, emergency managers, public agencies, industry, media, and other users for the following purposes: Improving engineering evaluations and design methods for facilities and systems;Provi
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, Mehmet Çelebi, Lind Gee, Robert Graves, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Erol Kalkan, Keith L. Knudsen, Nicolas Luco, James Smith, Jamison Steidl, Christopher D. Stephens
Subsurface geometry of the San Andreas fault in southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and strong ground motion expectations
The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our line 4, a
Authors
Gary S. Fuis, Klaus Bauer, Mark R. Goldman, Trond Ryberg, Victoria E. Langenheim, Daniel S. Scheirer, Michael J. Rymer, Joann M. Stock, John A. Hole, Rufus D. Catchings, Robert Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Earthquake outlook for the San Francisco Bay region 2014–2043
Using information from recent earthquakes, improved mapping of active faults, and a new model for estimating earthquake probabilities, the 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities updated the 30-year earthquake forecast for California. They concluded that there is a 72 percent probability (or likelihood) of at least one earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater striking somewhere in
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, John Boatwright, Susan H. Garcia, Ruth A. Harris, Andrew J. Michael, David P. Schwartz, Jeanne S. DiLeo
The Mw6.0 24 August 2014 South Napa earthquake
The Mw 6.0 South Napa earthquake, which occurred at 10:20 UTC 24 August 2014 was the largest earthquake to strike the greater San Francisco Bay area since the Mw 6.9 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The rupture from this right‐lateral earthquake propagated mostly unilaterally to the north and up‐dip, directing the strongest shaking toward the city of Napa, where peak ground accelerations (PGAs) betwee
Authors
Thomas M. Brocher, Annemarie S. Baltay, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Fred F. Pollitz, Jessica R. Murray, Andrea L. Llenos, David P. Schwartz, J. Luke Blair, Daniel J. Ponti, James J. Lienkaemper, Victoria E. Langenheim, Timothy E. Dawson, Kenneth W. Hudnut, David R. Shelly, Douglas S. Dreger, John Boatwright, Brad T. Aagaard, David J. Wald, Richard M. Allen, William D. Barnhart, Keith L. Knudsen, Benjamin A. Brooks, Katherine M. Scharer
Key recovery factors for the August 24, 2014, South Napa Earthquake
Through discussions between the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) following the South Napa earthquake, it was determined that several key decision points would be faced by FEMA for which additional information should be sought and provided by USGS and its partners. This report addresses the four tasks that were agreed to. These tasks are (1) assessmen
Authors
Kenneth W. Hudnut, Thomas M. Brocher, Carol S. Prentice, John Boatwright, Benjamin A. Brooks, Brad T. Aagaard, J. Luke Blair, Jon Peter B. Fletcher, Jemile Erdem, Charles W. Wicks, Jessica R. Murray, Fred F. Pollitz, John O. Langbein, Jerry L. Svarc, David P. Schwartz, Daniel J. Ponti, Suzanne Hecker, Stephen B. DeLong, Carla M. Rosa, Brenda Jones, Rynn M. Lamb, Anne M. Rosinski, Timothy P. McCrink, Timothy E. Dawson, Gordon G. Seitz, Craig Glennie, Darren Hauser, Todd Ericksen, Dan Mardock, Don F. Hoirup, Jonathan D. Bray, Ron S. Rubin
A domain decomposition approach to implementing fault slip in finite-element models of quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation
We employ a domain decomposition approach with Lagrange multipliers to implement fault slip in a finite-element code, PyLith, for use in both quasi-static and dynamic crustal deformation applications. This integrated approach to solving both quasi-static and dynamic simulations leverages common finite-element data structures and implementations of various boundary conditions, discretization scheme
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, M.G. Knepley, C.A. Williams
Probabilistic estimates of surface coseismic slip and afterslip for Hayward fault earthquakes
We examine the partition of long‐term geologic slip on the Hayward fault into interseismic creep, coseismic slip, and afterslip. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute expected coseismic slip and afterslip at three alinement array sites for Hayward fault earthquakes with nominal moment magnitudes ranging from about 6.5 to 7.1. We consider how interseismic creep might affect the coseismic slip d
Authors
Brad T. Aagaard, James J. Lienkaemper, David P. Schwartz
Testing long-period ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes using the Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah mainshock: Evaluation of finite-fault rupture characterization and 3D seismic velocity models
Using a suite of five hypothetical finite-fault rupture models, we test the ability of long-period (T>2.0 s) ground-motion simulations of scenario earthquakes to produce waveforms throughout southern California consistent with those recorded during the 4 April 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake. The hypothetical ruptures are generated using the methodology proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2010
Authors
Robert W. Graves, Brad T. Aagaard
Verifying a computational method for predicting extreme ground motion
In situations where seismological data is rare or nonexistent, computer simulations may be used to predict ground motions caused by future earthquakes. This is particularly practical in the case of extreme ground motions, where engineers of special buildings may need to design for an event that has not been historically observed but which may occur in the far-distant future. Once the simulations h
Authors
R. A. Harris, M. Barall, D.J. Andrews, B. Duan, S. Ma, E.M. Dunham, A.-A. Gabriel, Y. Kaneko, Y. Kase, Brad T. Aagaard, D. D. Oglesby, J.-P. Ampuero, T. C. Hanks, N. Abrahamson