Morgan T Page
Morgan Page is a geophysicist in the Earthquake Science Center.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 33
New opportunities to study earthquake precursors
No abstract available.
Authors
M. E. Pritchard, R. M. Allen, T. W. Becker, M. D. Behn, E. E. Brodsky, R. Burgmann, C. Ebinger, J. T. Freymueller, M. C. Gerstenberger, B. Haines, Y. Kaneko, S. D. Jacobsen, N. Lindsey, Jeffrey McGuire, Morgan T. Page, S. Ruiz, M. Tolstoy, L. Wallace, W. R. Walter, W. Wilcock, H. Vincent
Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model
The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epide
Authors
Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, William H Savran, Morgan T. Page, Thomas H Jordan
#EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring discourse between government officials, news media and social media during the Bombay Beach 2016 Swarm
Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task. Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2≤M≤4.3 earthquakes, which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the San Andreas fault caused concern that a larger earthquake could be tri
Authors
Sara McBride, Andrea L. Llenos, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Peak ground displacement saturates exactly when expected: Implications for earthquake early warning
The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements measured at station
Authors
Daniel T. Trugman, Morgan T. Page, Sarah E. Minson, Elizabeth S. Cochran
The limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy
We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately predict the observed ground motion above a predeterm
Authors
Sarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Thomas C. Hanks, Morgan T. Page, Sara McBride, Kevin R. Milner, Men-Andrin Meier
Developing earthquake forecast templates for fast and effective communication
No abstract available.
Authors
Sara McBride, Andrew J. Michael, Anne M. Wein, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Julia S. Becker, Sally H. Potter, Suzanne C. Perry, Morgan T. Page, Matthew Gerstenberger, Edward H. Field, Nicholas van der Elst
Updated California aftershock parameters
Reasenberg and Jones (1989) introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following M≥5 mainshocks in California. Here, we update the “generic” parameters for California through a f
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Turing-style tests for UCERF3 synthetic catalogs
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault-based long-term forecast with short-term earthquake clustering statistics. We present Turing-style tests to examine whether these synthetic catalogs can successfully imitate observed earthquake behav
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed s
Authors
Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn Biasi, Thomas E. Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Peter Bird, Karen Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximillan J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequ
Authors
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximillan J. Werner
Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability
Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Karen Felzer, Andrew J. Michael
The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project
Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake‐so
Authors
P. Martin Mai, Danijel Schorlemmer, Morgan T. Page, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Kimiyuki Asano, Mathieu Causse, Susana Custodio, Wenyuan Fan, Gaetano Festa, Martin Galis, Frantisek Gallovic, Walter Imperatori, Martin Käser, Dmytro Malytskyy, Ryo Okuwaki, Fred Pollitz, Luca Passone, Hoby N. T. Razafindrakoto, Haruko Sekiguchi, Seok Goo Song, Surendra N. Somala, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Cedric Twardzik, Martin van Driel, Jagdish C. Vyas, Rongjiang Wang, Yuji Yagi, Olaf Zielke
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 33
New opportunities to study earthquake precursors
No abstract available.
Authors
M. E. Pritchard, R. M. Allen, T. W. Becker, M. D. Behn, E. E. Brodsky, R. Burgmann, C. Ebinger, J. T. Freymueller, M. C. Gerstenberger, B. Haines, Y. Kaneko, S. D. Jacobsen, N. Lindsey, Jeffrey McGuire, Morgan T. Page, S. Ruiz, M. Tolstoy, L. Wallace, W. R. Walter, W. Wilcock, H. Vincent
Operational earthquake forecasting during the 2019 Ridgecrest, California, earthquake sequence with the UCERF3-ETAS model
The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epide
Authors
Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, William H Savran, Morgan T. Page, Thomas H Jordan
#EarthquakeAdvisory: Exploring discourse between government officials, news media and social media during the Bombay Beach 2016 Swarm
Communicating probabilities of natural hazards to varied audiences is a notoriously difficult task. Many of these challenges were encountered during the 2016 Bombay Beach, California, swarm of ~100 2≤M≤4.3 earthquakes, which began on 26 September 2016 and lasted for several days. The swarm’s proximity to the southern end of the San Andreas fault caused concern that a larger earthquake could be tri
Authors
Sara McBride, Andrea L. Llenos, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Peak ground displacement saturates exactly when expected: Implications for earthquake early warning
The scaling of rupture properties with magnitude is of critical importance to earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that rely on source characterization using limited snapshots of waveform data. ShakeAlert, a prototype EEW system that is being developed for the western United States, provides real-time estimates of earthquake magnitude based on P-wave peak ground displacements measured at station
Authors
Daniel T. Trugman, Morgan T. Page, Sarah E. Minson, Elizabeth S. Cochran
The limits of earthquake early warning accuracy and best alerting strategy
We explore how accurate earthquake early warning (EEW) can be, given our limited ability to forecast expected shaking even if the earthquake source is known. Because of the strong variability of ground motion metrics, such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV), we find that correct alerts (i.e., alerts that accurately predict the observed ground motion above a predeterm
Authors
Sarah E. Minson, Annemarie S. Baltay, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Thomas C. Hanks, Morgan T. Page, Sara McBride, Kevin R. Milner, Men-Andrin Meier
Developing earthquake forecast templates for fast and effective communication
No abstract available.
Authors
Sara McBride, Andrew J. Michael, Anne M. Wein, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Julia S. Becker, Sally H. Potter, Suzanne C. Perry, Morgan T. Page, Matthew Gerstenberger, Edward H. Field, Nicholas van der Elst
Updated California aftershock parameters
Reasenberg and Jones (1989) introduced a statistical model for aftershock rate following a mainshock along with estimates of “generic” California parameter values based on past aftershock sequences. The Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model has been used for decades to issue aftershock forecasts following M≥5 mainshocks in California. Here, we update the “generic” parameters for California through a f
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrea L. Llenos, Andrew J. Michael, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
Turing-style tests for UCERF3 synthetic catalogs
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) catalogs generated from the 3rd Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) model are unique in that they are the first to combine a complex, fault-based long-term forecast with short-term earthquake clustering statistics. We present Turing-style tests to examine whether these synthetic catalogs can successfully imitate observed earthquake behav
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed s
Authors
Edward H. Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn Biasi, Thomas E. Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Peter Bird, Karen Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximillan J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type aftershock sequ
Authors
Edward H. Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximillan J. Werner
Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability
Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been released on an
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Karen Felzer, Andrew J. Michael
The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project
Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in earthquake‐so
Authors
P. Martin Mai, Danijel Schorlemmer, Morgan T. Page, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Kimiyuki Asano, Mathieu Causse, Susana Custodio, Wenyuan Fan, Gaetano Festa, Martin Galis, Frantisek Gallovic, Walter Imperatori, Martin Käser, Dmytro Malytskyy, Ryo Okuwaki, Fred Pollitz, Luca Passone, Hoby N. T. Razafindrakoto, Haruko Sekiguchi, Seok Goo Song, Surendra N. Somala, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Cedric Twardzik, Martin van Driel, Jagdish C. Vyas, Rongjiang Wang, Yuji Yagi, Olaf Zielke