Ash/Tephra Fall

The pattern of eruptions over the last 13,000 years suggest that the chances of a future eruption at Medicine Lake volcano are about 1 in 3,600 in any given year.

At Medicine Lake Volcano, there is a 1 in 5,000 chance of an eruption producing enough tephra to accumulate to 1 cm (0.4 in) thick in any given year.