Publications

Empirically the rate of earthquakes = magnitude M is well fit by the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, logN=a-bM (1) where N is the number of earthquakes = M over a given time period, a is the number of M = 0 earthquakes over the same period, and b is a parameter that determines the ratio of larger to smaller earthquakes (Ishimoto and Iida 1939; Gutenberg and Richter 1944). Thus to characterize the

This appendix provides an earthquake catalog for California and the surrounding area. Our goal is to provide a listing for all known M > 5.5 earthquakes that occurred from 1850-1932 and all known M > 4.0 earthquakes that occurred from 1932-2006 within the region of 31.0 to 43.0 degrees North and -126.0 to -114.0 degrees West. Some pre-1932 earthquakes 4 < M < 5.5 are also listed. The completeness

This appendix to the WGCEP Earthquake Rate Model 2 summarizes geologic data and documents the development of the rupture models for the Elsinore, San Jacinto, and Garlock faults. For the summary of available geologic data, the documentation is organized by fault and fault segment and includes a summary of slip rates, event timing and recurrence, slip-per-event, and historical seismicity for each s

This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of earthquake ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean

This appendix summarizes the data and methodology used to generate the source model for the southern San Andreas fault. It is organized into three sections, 1) a section by section review of the geological data in the format of past Working Groups, 2) an overview of the rupture model, and 3) a manuscript by Biasi and Weldon (in review Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America) that describe

The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault l

Paleoearthquake observations often lack enough events at a given site to directly define a probability density function (PDF) for earthquake recurrence. Sites with fewer than 10-15 intervals do not provide enough information to reliably determine the shape of the PDF using standard maximum-likelihood techniques [e.g., Ellsworth et al., 1999]. In this paper I present a method that attempts to fit w

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the curren

This appendix summarizes available recurrence interval, event age, and timing of most recent event data for Type A faults considered in the Earthquake Rate Model 2 (ERM 2) and used in the ERM 2 Appendix C analysis as well as Appendix N (time-dependent probabilities). These data have been compiled into an Excel workbook named Appendix B A-fault event ages_recurrence_V5.0 (herein referred to as the

To construct the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, we started with two sets of damage descriptions and felt reports. The first set of 100 sites was compiled by A.A. Bullock in the Lawson (1908) report on the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The second set of 45 sites was compiled by Toppozada et al. (1981) from an extensive search of newspaper archives. We s

California?s 35 million people live among some of the most active earthquake faults in the United States. Public safety demands credible assessments of the earthquake hazard to maintain appropriate building codes for safe construction and earthquake insurance for loss protection. Seismic hazard analysis begins with an earthquake rupture forecast?a model of probabilities that earthquakes of specifi

In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%. Such quakes can be deadly, as shown by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta and the 1994 magnitude 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or g