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Probabilistic Forecasting of Earthquakes, Tsunamis, and Earthquake Effects in the Coastal Zone

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By Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center November 9, 2021

The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.

Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.

Research Web Sites

Tsunami and Earthquake Research

This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.

Earthquake Hazards Program

We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.

Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)

We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.

Global Geoengineering Research

The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 115

A comparative study of surface waves inversion techniques at strong motion recording sites in Greece

Surface wave method was used for the estimation of Vs vs depth profile at 10 strong motion stations in Greece. The dispersion data were obtained by SASW method, utilizing a pair of electromechanical harmonic-wave source (shakers) or a random source (drop weight). In this study, three inversion techniques were used a) a recently proposed Simplified Inversion Method (SIM), b) an inversion technique
Authors
Panagiotis C. Pelekis, Alexandros Savvaidis, Robert E. Kayen, Vasileios S. Vlachakis, George A. Athanasopoulos
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Non-linear resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves using stochastic earthquake source models

Non-linear resonant coupling of edge waves can occur with tsunamis generated by large-magnitude subduction zone earthquakes. Earthquake rupture zones that straddle beneath the coastline of continental margins are particularly efficient at generating tsunami edge waves. Using a stochastic model for earthquake slip, it is shown that a wide range of edge-wave modes and wavenumbers can be excited, dep
Authors
Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Subduction Zone Science

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulti
Authors
Thomas E. Parsons, Diane L. Minasian
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in
Authors
Kenny J. Ryan, Eric L. Geist, Michael Barall, David D. Oglesby
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Shear Wave Velocity and Site Amplification Factors for 25 Strong-Motion Instrument Stations Affected by the M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, Earthquake of August 23, 2011

Vertical one-dimensional shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles are presented for 25 strong-motion instrument sites along the Mid-Atlantic eastern seaboard, Piedmont region, and Appalachian region, which surround the epicenter of the M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, Earthquake of August 23, 2011. Testing was performed at sites in Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, the District of Columbia, North C
Authors
Robert E. Kayen, Brad A. Carkin, Skye C. Corbett, Aliza Zangwill, Ivan Estevez, Lena Lai
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Great (≥Mw8.0) megathrust earthquakes and the subduction of excess sediment and bathymetrically smooth seafloor

Using older and in part flawed data, Ruff (1989) suggested that thick sediment entering the subduction zone (SZ) smooths and strengthens the trench-parallel distribution of interplate coupling. This circumstance was conjectured to favor rupture continuation and the generation of high-magnitude (≥Mw8.0) interplate thrust (IPT) earthquakes. Using larger and more accurate compilations of sediment thi
Authors
David W. Scholl, Stephe H. Kirby, Roland E. von Huene, Holly F. Ryan, Ray E. Wells, Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Subduction Zone Science

Shear-wave velocity and site-amplification factors for 50 Australian sites determined by the spectral analysis of surface waves method

One-dimensional shear-wave velocity (VS ) profiles are presented at 50 strong motion sites in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. The VS profiles are estimated with the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method. The SASW method is a noninvasive method that indirectly estimates the VS at depth from variations in the Rayleigh wave phase velocity at the surface.
Authors
Robert E. Kayen, Bradley A. Carkin, Trevor Allen, Clive Collins, Andrew McPherson, Diane L. Minasian
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Surface wave site characterization at 27 locations near Boston, Massachusetts, including 2 strong-motion stations

The geotechnical properties of the soils in and around Boston, Massachusetts, have been extensively studied. This is partly due to the importance of the Boston Blue Clay and the extent of landfill in the Boston area. Although New England is not a region that is typically associated with seismic hazards, there have been several historical earthquakes that have caused significant ground shaking (for
Authors
Eric M. Thompson, Bradley A. Carkin, Laurie G. Baise, Robert E. Kayen
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic
Authors
Eric L. Geist, David D. Oglesby
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

The geology and geochemistry of Isla Floreana, Galápagos: A different type of late-stage ocean island volcanism

Isla Floreana, the southernmost volcano in the Galápagos Archipelago, has erupted a diverse suite of alkaline basalts continually since 1.5 Ma. Because these basalts have different compositions than xenoliths and older lavas from the deep submarine sector of the volcano, Floreana is interpreted as being in a rejuvenescent or late-stage phase of volcanism. Most lavas contain xenoliths, or their dis
Authors
Karen S. Harpp, Dennis J. Geist, Alison M. Koleszar, Branden Christensen, John J. Lyons, Melissa Sabga, Nathan Rollins
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found,
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, Jason Chaytor, Eric L. Geist, Daniel S. Brothers, Brian D. Andrews
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm
Authors
Eric L. Geist, Uri S. ten Brink, Matthew D. Gove
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Below are news stories associated with this project.

Below are FAQ associated with this project.

The nation's coastlines are vulnerable to the interrelated hazards posed by earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. In the marine environment these events often occur in concert, and distant triggers can cause severe local effects, making the issue global in scope. As the population continues to migrate toward the coastlines, the social impacts of these hazards are expected to grow.

Products are aimed for use in regional multi-hazard assessments, and might range from complete assessments to analysis tools, interpreted data, or models. We are interacting with groups tasked with making formal hazard assessments and have provided products needed by them in a timely manner (e.g., Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)). These collaborations will continue to be a major guiding influence, and we plan to maintain research flexibility needed for proper response as necessary. As such, the task is defined thematically. The larger community will help to establish guidelines on regions in which we will we work.

Research Web Sites

Tsunami and Earthquake Research

This site provides general information about how earthquakes generate tsunamis, as well as descriptions and animations of historical tsunamis, virtual reality models showing how tsunamis change as they approach and bounce off coastlines, and summaries of past fieldwork in areas struck by major tsunamis.

Earthquake Hazards Program

We work closely with scientists in the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, with the goal of providing relevant scientific information to reduce deaths, injuries, and property damage from earthquakes.

Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP)

We collaborate with groups that make formal hazard assessments, such as the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), providing and evaluating the latest scientific information. This site presents the most recent collaborative earthquake forecasts for all of California.

Global Geoengineering Research

The Coastal and Marine Geology geoengineering group investigates the causes of ground deformation and ground failures—such as landslides and liquefaction—that result from earthquakes, storms, and wave action.

Below are other science projects associated with this project.

Below are publications associated with this project.

Filter Total Items: 115

A comparative study of surface waves inversion techniques at strong motion recording sites in Greece

Surface wave method was used for the estimation of Vs vs depth profile at 10 strong motion stations in Greece. The dispersion data were obtained by SASW method, utilizing a pair of electromechanical harmonic-wave source (shakers) or a random source (drop weight). In this study, three inversion techniques were used a) a recently proposed Simplified Inversion Method (SIM), b) an inversion technique
Authors
Panagiotis C. Pelekis, Alexandros Savvaidis, Robert E. Kayen, Vasileios S. Vlachakis, George A. Athanasopoulos
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Non-linear resonant coupling of tsunami edge waves using stochastic earthquake source models

Non-linear resonant coupling of edge waves can occur with tsunamis generated by large-magnitude subduction zone earthquakes. Earthquake rupture zones that straddle beneath the coastline of continental margins are particularly efficient at generating tsunami edge waves. Using a stochastic model for earthquake slip, it is shown that a wide range of edge-wave modes and wavenumbers can be excited, dep
Authors
Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Subduction Zone Science

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulti
Authors
Thomas E. Parsons, Diane L. Minasian
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Dynamic models of an earthquake and tsunami offshore Ventura, California

The Ventura basin in Southern California includes coastal dip-slip faults that can likely produce earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater and significant local tsunamis. We construct a 3-D dynamic rupture model of an earthquake on the Pitas Point and Lower Red Mountain faults to model low-frequency ground motion and the resulting tsunami, with a goal of elucidating the seismic and tsunami hazard in
Authors
Kenny J. Ryan, Eric L. Geist, Michael Barall, David D. Oglesby
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Shear Wave Velocity and Site Amplification Factors for 25 Strong-Motion Instrument Stations Affected by the M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, Earthquake of August 23, 2011

Vertical one-dimensional shear wave velocity (Vs) profiles are presented for 25 strong-motion instrument sites along the Mid-Atlantic eastern seaboard, Piedmont region, and Appalachian region, which surround the epicenter of the M5.8 Mineral, Virginia, Earthquake of August 23, 2011. Testing was performed at sites in Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, the District of Columbia, North C
Authors
Robert E. Kayen, Brad A. Carkin, Skye C. Corbett, Aliza Zangwill, Ivan Estevez, Lena Lai
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Great (≥Mw8.0) megathrust earthquakes and the subduction of excess sediment and bathymetrically smooth seafloor

Using older and in part flawed data, Ruff (1989) suggested that thick sediment entering the subduction zone (SZ) smooths and strengthens the trench-parallel distribution of interplate coupling. This circumstance was conjectured to favor rupture continuation and the generation of high-magnitude (≥Mw8.0) interplate thrust (IPT) earthquakes. Using larger and more accurate compilations of sediment thi
Authors
David W. Scholl, Stephe H. Kirby, Roland E. von Huene, Holly F. Ryan, Ray E. Wells, Eric L. Geist
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Subduction Zone Science

Shear-wave velocity and site-amplification factors for 50 Australian sites determined by the spectral analysis of surface waves method

One-dimensional shear-wave velocity (VS ) profiles are presented at 50 strong motion sites in New South Wales and Victoria, Australia. The VS profiles are estimated with the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method. The SASW method is a noninvasive method that indirectly estimates the VS at depth from variations in the Rayleigh wave phase velocity at the surface.
Authors
Robert E. Kayen, Bradley A. Carkin, Trevor Allen, Clive Collins, Andrew McPherson, Diane L. Minasian
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Surface wave site characterization at 27 locations near Boston, Massachusetts, including 2 strong-motion stations

The geotechnical properties of the soils in and around Boston, Massachusetts, have been extensively studied. This is partly due to the importance of the Boston Blue Clay and the extent of landfill in the Boston area. Although New England is not a region that is typically associated with seismic hazards, there have been several historical earthquakes that have caused significant ground shaking (for
Authors
Eric M. Thompson, Bradley A. Carkin, Laurie G. Baise, Robert E. Kayen
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Tsunamis: stochastic models of occurrence and generation mechanisms

The devastating consequences of the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Japan tsunamis have led to increased research into many different aspects of the tsunami phenomenon. In this entry, we review research related to the observed complexity and uncertainty associated with tsunami generation, propagation, and occurrence described and analyzed using a variety of stochastic methods. In each case, seismogenic
Authors
Eric L. Geist, David D. Oglesby
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

The geology and geochemistry of Isla Floreana, Galápagos: A different type of late-stage ocean island volcanism

Isla Floreana, the southernmost volcano in the Galápagos Archipelago, has erupted a diverse suite of alkaline basalts continually since 1.5 Ma. Because these basalts have different compositions than xenoliths and older lavas from the deep submarine sector of the volcano, Floreana is interpreted as being in a rejuvenescent or late-stage phase of volcanism. Most lavas contain xenoliths, or their dis
Authors
Karen S. Harpp, Dennis J. Geist, Alison M. Koleszar, Branden Christensen, John J. Lyons, Melissa Sabga, Nathan Rollins
By
Volcano Hazards Program, Volcano Science Center

Assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin

Tsunami hazard is a very low-probability, but potentially high-risk natural hazard, posing unique challenges to scientists and policy makers trying to mitigate its impacts. These challenges are illustrated in this assessment of tsunami hazard to the U.S. Atlantic margin. Seismic activity along the U.S. Atlantic margin in general is low, and confirmed paleo-tsunami deposits have not yet been found,
Authors
Uri S. ten Brink, Jason Chaytor, Eric L. Geist, Daniel S. Brothers, Brian D. Andrews
By
Natural Hazards Mission Area, Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center

A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis

A probabilistic technique is developed to assess the hazard from meteotsunamis. Meteotsunamis are unusual sea-level events, generated when the speed of an atmospheric pressure or wind disturbance is comparable to the phase speed of long waves in the ocean. A general aggregation equation is proposed for the probabilistic analysis, based on previous frameworks established for both tsunamis and storm
Authors
Eric L. Geist, Uri S. ten Brink, Matthew D. Gove
By
Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center

Below are news stories associated with this project.

Below are FAQ associated with this project.

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