Prediction and Modeling

In response to decreasing water levels in the Great Lakes, especially Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, the International Upper Great Lakes Study (IUGLS) asked USGS to continuously measure flows in the connecting channels of St. Marys, St. Clair, and Detroit Rivers, and Water Survey Canada (WSC) to measure flows of Niagara River. To accommodate the effects of variable backwater and the unsteadiness of...

SPARROW models for the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) predict long-term average loads, concentrations, yields, and source contributions of water, nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended sediment to the Gulf of Mexico.

SPARROW phosphorus and nitrogen models are being developed for the entire Great Lakes Basin and the Upper Midwest part of the U.S., and the Red and Assiniboine River Basin, as part of a Binational project between the USGS and the International Joint Commission (IJC) and National Research Council (NRC) of Canada.

The WinSLAMM model is used to identify sources of pollutants in urban stormwater runoff and to evaluate management alternatives for reducing pollutants. USGS studies provide stormwater flow and pollutant-concentration data for calibrating and verifying WinSLAMM for use in Wisconsin.

SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) models estimate the amount of a contaminant transported from inland watersheds to larger water bodies by linking monitoring data with information on watershed characteristics and contaminant sources. Interactive, online SPARROW mapping tools allow for easy access to explore relations between human activities, natural processes, and...

Recreational water and industrial discharges are regulated by other federal and state agencies across the country. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Michigan Bacteriological Research Laboratory (MI-BaRL) conducts studies to understand the fate and transport of fecal indicator bacteria in surface and groundwater to aid state and federal partners. A variety of standardized protocols are used to...

Enbridge Energy Partners LLP (Enbridge) reported a 30-inch pipeline ruptured on Monday, July 26, 2010, near Marshall, Michigan. The release, estimated at 819,000 gallons, entered Talmadge Creek and flowed into the Kalamazoo River, a Lake Michigan tributary. Heavy rains caused the river to overtop existing dams and carried oil 30 miles downstream on the Kalamazoo River. As the federal agency in...

The Winnebago Pool Lakes are shallow, productive drainage lakes that have accumulated nutrients from its mixed agricultural/forest watershed and from the Fox River. High phosphorus concentrations often result in severe blue-green algae blooms that can produce harmful toxins. The USGS is evaluating the water quality and phosphorus budget of each lake and modeling eutrophication responses.

Little St. Germain Lake, Wis., consists of four main basins separated by narrows. This study monitored lake water quality, identified phosphorus sources, determined spatial and temporal distribution of oxygen, evaluated the effectiveness of winter aeration systems, and modeled groundwater/lake-water interactions.

Anvil Lake is a relatively shallow, high-quality lake whose water level has dropped dramatically in recent years, adversely affecting the recreational and aesthetic values of the lake. The USGS is developing detailed water and phosphorus budgets, determining groundwater contributions, modeling likely responses to changes in phosphorus loading, and assessing the effect of climate on water quality.

The PEST++ software suite is object-oriented universal computer code written in C++ that expands on and extends the algorithms included in PEST, a widely used parameter estimation code written in Fortran. PEST++ is designed to lower the barriers of entry for users and developers while providing efficient algorithms that can accommodate large, highly parameterized problems.

PESTCommander is an object-oriented Graphical User Interface (GUI) written in Python® that facilitates the management of model files ("file management") and remote launching and termination of slave computers across a distributed network of computers ("run management").