Ecological Modeling for the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) Operational Plan
The Joint Ecosystem Modeling team will run a suite of 13 ecological models to provide insight into alternative restoration plans' ecological performance, unintended ecological conditions, and potential conflicts with other Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) goals.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Ecological models facilitate the evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM), a partnership among federal and state agencies, provides ecological models tailored to address specific natural resources management decisions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is interested in applying these models for the evaluation of the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) Operational Plan to understand how species and habitats of concern are projected to respond to each alternative restoration plan. The purpose of CEPP is to improve the quantity, quality, timing, and distribution of water flows to the northern estuaries, Water Conservation Area 3, Everglades National Park, and Florida Bay while increasing water supply for municipal, industrial, and agricultural users. The CEPP Operational Plan aims to provide operating criteria for CEPP infrastructure, that contribute towards achieving the goals, purposes, and benefits of CEPP.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: The JEM team will run a suite of 13 ecological models using CEPP Operational Plan hydrologic baseline conditions using downscaled hydrology data from the South Florida Water Management District. These models are: (1) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) Helper; (2) CSSS Viewer; (3) Marl Prairie Indicator; (4) KiteNest; (5) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail); (6) EverWaders; (7) Small fish; (8) Days Since Drydown; (9) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI); (10) Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA); (11) WADEM; (12) Everglades Landscape Vegetation Succession (ELVeS); and (13) EverSparrow. The team will then run the models using a series of alternative hydrologic scenarios and produce visualizations of model outputs to assist with the evaluation of scenarios.
Future Steps: The outputs from these models will be used to 1) provide insight into how alternative restoration plans compare in terms of ecological performance, 2) indicate whether any alternatives could lead to unintended ecological conditions, and 3) determine effects of alternatives that could conflict with other Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) goals.
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Helper
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Wader Distribution & Evaluation Modeling (WADEM)
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow Marl Prairie Indicator
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: EverSnail
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Alligator Production Probability Model
Joint Ecosystem Modeling: Greater Everglades Modeling Decision Support Tools
Advanced Technological Solutions in Support of Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystem Science: Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM)
The Joint Ecosystem Modeling team will run a suite of 13 ecological models to provide insight into alternative restoration plans' ecological performance, unintended ecological conditions, and potential conflicts with other Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) goals.
The Science Issue and Relevance: Ecological models facilitate the evaluation of alternative approaches to restore the Greater Everglades ecosystem. Joint Ecosystem Modeling (JEM), a partnership among federal and state agencies, provides ecological models tailored to address specific natural resources management decisions. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is interested in applying these models for the evaluation of the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) Operational Plan to understand how species and habitats of concern are projected to respond to each alternative restoration plan. The purpose of CEPP is to improve the quantity, quality, timing, and distribution of water flows to the northern estuaries, Water Conservation Area 3, Everglades National Park, and Florida Bay while increasing water supply for municipal, industrial, and agricultural users. The CEPP Operational Plan aims to provide operating criteria for CEPP infrastructure, that contribute towards achieving the goals, purposes, and benefits of CEPP.
Methodology for Addressing the Issue: The JEM team will run a suite of 13 ecological models using CEPP Operational Plan hydrologic baseline conditions using downscaled hydrology data from the South Florida Water Management District. These models are: (1) Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (CSSS) Helper; (2) CSSS Viewer; (3) Marl Prairie Indicator; (4) KiteNest; (5) (native) Florida apple snail population model (EverSnail); (6) EverWaders; (7) Small fish; (8) Days Since Drydown; (9) Alligator Habitat Suitability Index (HSI); (10) Everglades Vulnerability Analysis (EVA); (11) WADEM; (12) Everglades Landscape Vegetation Succession (ELVeS); and (13) EverSparrow. The team will then run the models using a series of alternative hydrologic scenarios and produce visualizations of model outputs to assist with the evaluation of scenarios.
Future Steps: The outputs from these models will be used to 1) provide insight into how alternative restoration plans compare in terms of ecological performance, 2) indicate whether any alternatives could lead to unintended ecological conditions, and 3) determine effects of alternatives that could conflict with other Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) goals.