Publications
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Forecasting for a fractured land: A case study of the communication and use of aftershock forecasts from the Mw 7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake in Aotearoa New Zealand
Operational earthquake forecasts (OEFs) are represented as time‐dependent probabilities of future earthquake hazard and risk. These probabilities can be presented in a variety of formats, including tables, maps, and text‐based scenarios. In countries such as Aotearoa New Zealand, the U.S., and Japan, OEFs have been released by scientific organizations to agencies and the public, with the intent of
Authors
Julia S. Becker, Sally H. Potter, Sara McBride, Emma E. Hudson-Doyle, Matthew Gerstenberger, Anne-Marie Christopherson
Developing post-alert messaging for ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States of America
As ShakeAlert, the earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the U.S., begins its transition to operational public alerting, we explore how post-alert messaging might represent system performance. Planned post-alert messaging can provide timely, crucial information to both emergency managers and ShakeAlert operators as well as calibrate expectations among various publics or public user
Authors
Sara McBride, Ann Bostrom, Jeannette Sutton, Robert Michael deGroot, Annemarie S. Baltay, Brian Terbush, Paul Bodin, Maximilian Dixon, Emily Holland, Ryan Arba, Paul C. Laustsen, Sophia Liu, Margaret Vinci
A stress-similarity triggering model for aftershocks of the MW6.4 and MW7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes
The July 2019 Mw 6.4 and 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquakes triggered numerous aftershocks, including clusters of off‐fault aftershocks in an extensional stepover of the Garlock fault, near the town of Olancha, and near Panamint Valley. The locations of the off‐fault aftershocks are consistent with the stress‐similarity model of triggering, which hypothesizes that aftershocks preferentially occur in areas
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck
Are the stress drops of small earthquakes good predictors of the stress drops of moderate-to-large earthquakes?
The stress drops of small earthquakes often exhibit spatial patterns of variability. If moderate and large earthquakes follow the same spatial patterns, the stress drops of possible future damaging earthquakes could be better predicted by considering the stress drops of nearby small events. Better stress drop predictability could reduce ground-motion uncertainty in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard As
Authors
Jeanne L. Hardebeck
Seismicity induced by massive wastewater injection near Puerto Gaitán, Colombia
Seven years after the beginning of a massive wastewater injection project in eastern Colombia, local earthquake activity increased significantly. The field operator and the Colombian Geological Survey immediately reinforced the monitoring of the area. Our analysis of the temporal evolution of the seismic and injection data together with our knowledge of the geological parameters of the region indi
Authors
I Molina, J.S. Velasquez, Justin Rubinstein, A García-Aristizabal, V Dionicio
Laboratory electrical conductivity of marine gas hydrate
Methane hydrate was synthesized from pure water ice and flash frozen seawater, with varying amounts of sand or silt added. Electrical conductivity was determined by impedance spectroscopy, using equivalent circuit modeling to separate the effects of electrodes and to gain insight into conduction mechanisms. Silt and sand increase the conductivity of pure hydrate, we infer by contaminant NaCl contr
Authors
Steven Constable, Ryan Lu, Laura A. Stern, Wyatt L. Du Frane, Jeffery J. Roberts
Localized fluid discharge by tensile cracking during the post-seismic period in subduction zones
It is thought that extensional structures (extensional cracks and normal faults) generated during the post-seismic period create fluid pathways that enhance the drainage of the subducting plate interface, thus reducing the pore pressure and increasing fault strength. However, it remains to be elucidated how much pore fluid pressure decreases by the extension crack formation. Here we examined i) th
Authors
Makoto Otsubo, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Ayumu Miyakawa, Asuka Yamaguchi, Gaku Kimura
Documentation of Surface Fault Rupture and Ground‐Deformation Features Produced by the 4 and 5 July 2019 Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence
The MwMw 6.4 and MwMw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully
Authors
Daniel J. Ponti, James Luke Blair, Rosa Carla M, Kate Thomas, Alexandra Pickering, Sinan Akciz, Stephen J. Angster, Jean-Philipe Avouac, Jeffrey Bachhuber, Steven Bacon, Nicolas C. Barth, S. Bennett, Kelly Blake, Stephan Bork, Benjamin A. Brooks, Thomas Bullard, Paul A. Burgess, Colin Chupik, Timothy E. Dawson, Michael DeFrisco, Jaime E. Delano, Stephen B. DeLong, James D. Dolan, Andrea Donnellan, Christopher DuRoss, Todd Ericksen, Erik Frost, Gareth J. Funning, Ryan D. Gold, Nicholas A Graehl, Carlos Gutierrez, Elizabeth Haddon, Alexandra Elise Hatem, John Helms, Janis Hernandez, Christopher S. Hitchcock, Peter Holland, Kenneth W. Hudnut, Katherine J. Kendrick, Richard D Koehler, Ozgur Kozaci, Tyler C. Ladinsky, Robert Leeper, Christopher Madugo, Maxime Mareschal, James McDonald, Devin McPhillips, Christopher Milliner, Daniel Mongovin, Alexander Morelan, Stephanie Nale, Johanna Nevitt, Matt O'Neal, Brian J. Olsen, Michael Oskin, Salena Padilla, Jason Patton, Belle E. Philibosian, Ian Pierce, Cynthia Pridmore, Nathaniel Roth, David Sandwell, Katherine Scharer, Gordon G. Seitz, Drake Singleton, Bridget Smith-Konter, Eleanor Spangler, Brian J. Swanson, Jessica Thompson Jobe, Jerome Treiman, Francesca Valencia, Joshua Vanderwal, Alana Williams, Xiaohua Xu, Judith Zachariasen, Jade Zimmerman, Robert Zinke
Pseudo-prospective evaluation of UCERF3-ETAS forecasts during the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence
The 2019 Ridgecrest sequence provides the first opportunity to evaluate Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 with epidemic‐type aftershock sequences (UCERF3‐ETAS) in a pseudoprospective sense. For comparison, we include a version of the model without explicit faults more closely mimicking traditional ETAS models (UCERF3‐NoFaults). We evaluate the forecasts with new metrics developed
Authors
William J. Savran, Maximillian J. Werner, W. Marzocchi, David A. Rhoades, David D. Jackson, Kevin R. Milner, Edward H. Field, Andrew J. Michael
Evidence of previous faulting along the 2019 Ridgecrest, California earthquake ruptures
The July 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in southeastern California was characterized as surprising because only ~35% of the rupture occurred on previously mapped faults. Employing more detailed inspection of pre-event high-resolution topography and imagery in combination with field observations, we document evidence of active faulting in the landscape along the entire fault system. Scarps, de
Authors
Jessica Thompson Jobe, Belle E. Philibosian, Colin Chupik, Timothy E. Dawson, Scott E. K. Bennett, Ryan D. Gold, Christopher DuRoss, Tyler C. Ladinsky, Katherine J. Kendrick, Elizabeth Haddon, Ian Pierce, Brian J. Swanson, Gordon G. Seitz
Factors influencing the probability of hydraulic fracturing induced seismicity in Oklahoma
Injection‐induced seismicity became an important issue over the past decade, and although much of the rise in seismicity is attributed to wastewater disposal, a growing number of cases have identified hydraulic fracturing (HF) as the cause. A recent study identified regions in Oklahoma where ≥75% of seismicity from 2010 to 2016 correlated with nearly 300 HF wells. To identify factors associated wi
Authors
Rosamiel Ries, Michael R. Brudzinski, Robert Skoumal, Brian S. Currie
ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Performance During the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence
During July 2019, a sequence of earthquakes including a Mw6.4 foreshock and a Mw7.1 mainshock occurred near Ridgecrest, California. ShakeAlert, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ShakeAlert public Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system being developed for the U.S. West Coast, was operational during this time, though public alerting was only available within LA County. ShakeAlert created alert messag
Authors
Angela Chung, Men-Andrin Meier, Jennifer Andrews, Maren Böse, Brendan Crowell, Jeffrey McGuire, Deborah Smith