Publications

The ongoing, dramatic increase in seismicity in the central United States that began in 2009 is believed to be the result of injection‐induced seismicity (Ellsworth, 2013). Although the basic mechanism for activation of slip on a fault by subsurface fluid injection is well established (Healy et al., 1968; Raleighet al., 1976; Nicholson and Wesson, 1992; McGarr et al., 2002; Ellsworth, 2013), the o

On March 19, 2008 a small explosive event accompanied the opening of a 35-m-wide vent (Overlook vent) on the southeast wall of Halema‘uma‘u Crater in Kīlauea Caldera, initiating an eruptive period that extends to the time of writing. The peak of activity, in 2008, consisted of alternating background open-system outgassing and spattering punctuated by sudden, short-lived weak explosions, triggered

We derive time-dependent, renewal-model earthquake probabilities for the case in which the date of the last event is completely unknown, and compare these with the time-independent Poisson probabilities that are customarily used as an approximation in this situation. For typical parameter values, the renewal-model probabilities exceed Poisson results by more than 10% when the forecast duration exc

A methodology is presented for computing elastic‐rebound‐based probabilities in an unsegmented fault or fault system, which involves computing along‐fault averages of renewal‐model parameters. The approach is less biased and more self‐consistent than a logical extension of that applied most recently for multisegment ruptures in California. It also enables the application of magnitude‐dependent ape

Building a new model, especially one used for policy purposes, takes considerable time, effort, and resources. In justifying such expenditures, one inevitably spends a lot of time denigrating previous models. For example, in pitching the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), criticisms of the previous model included fault‐segmentation assumpti

Two hand-dug trenches at the Schist Creek site on the Denali fault system in central Alaska exposed evidence of four surface-rupturing earthquakes on the basis of upward terminations of fault strands and at least one buried, scarp-derived colluvial wedge. Limited radiocarbon ages provide some constraints on times of the ruptures. The youngest rupture (PE1) likely occurred about 200–400 years ago,

Models quantifying the onset of sediment motion do not typically account for the effect of biotic processes because they are difficult to isolate and quantify in relation to physical processes. Here we investigate an example of the interaction of kelp (Order Laminariales) and coarse sediment transport in the coastal zone, where it is possible to directly quantify and test its effect. Kelp is ubiqu

Using the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity, we have compiled one of the first field geologic maps on Mars while traversing the Noachian terrain along the rim of the 22 km diameter Endeavour Crater (Latitude −2°16′33″, Longitude −5°10′51″). In situ mapping of the petrographic, elemental, structural, and stratigraphic characteristics of outcrops and rocks distinguishes four mappable bedrock lithol

The first U.S. Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Dunbar and Weaver, 2008) was prepared at the request of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP). The NTHMP is a partnership formed between federal and state agencies to reduce the impact of tsunamis through hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The assessment was conducted in response to a 2005 joint report by the Sub-Committe

The 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake caused more than 8000 fatalities and widespread building damage in central Nepal. The Italian Space Agency’s COSMO–SkyMed Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite acquired data over Kathmandu area four days after the earthquake and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 SAR satellite for larger area nine days after th

Rapid and accurate characterization of an earthquake source is an extremely important and ever evolving field of research. Within this field, source inversion of the W-phase has recently been shown to be an effective technique, which can be efficiently implemented in real-time. An extension to the W-phase source inversion is presented in which two point sources are derived to better characterize c

The Mw6.1 South Napa earthquake occurred near Napa, California on August 24, 2014 (UTC), and was the largest inland earthquake in Northern California since the 1989 Mw6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. The first report of the earthquake from the Northern California Earthquake Data Center (NCEDC) indicates a hypocentral depth of 11.0km with longitude and latitude of (122.3105°W, 38.217°N). Surface rupture