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Aftershock Forecast Sequence-Specific Model Parameters equation
The probability distribution for the number of aftershocks, P(N), and the forecast can then be computed using the same procedures as for the generic model, using Pseq-spec(a) instead of Pgeneric(a).
Aftershock Forecast Sequence-Specific Model Parameters equation
The probability distribution for the number of aftershocks, P(N), and the forecast can then be computed using the same procedures as for the generic model, using Pseq-spec(a) instead of Pgeneric(a).
An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used.
An example of Bayesian updating of productivity parameter (a-value) for the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake. Immediately following the earthquake, the SZ-GENERIC region-specific a-value distribution can be used.
Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, showing the information box at the top of the forecast and the four tabs of forecast information.
Screenshot of the Aftershock Forecast for an earthquake in California, showing the information box at the top of the forecast and the four tabs of forecast information.
Equation 2 for the Aftershock Forecast probability distribution to compute the forecast
Equation 2 for the Aftershock Forecast probability distribution to compute the forecast
A low-angle aerial view of the vents where episodic fountaining has been occurring since the start of the ongoing Kīlauea summit eruption on December 23, 2024. A white plume of volcanic gas rises from the north vent (center right) and south vent (center left) cones in the southwest corner of Halema‘uma‘u crater, as viewed during a monitoring overflight.
A low-angle aerial view of the vents where episodic fountaining has been occurring since the start of the ongoing Kīlauea summit eruption on December 23, 2024. A white plume of volcanic gas rises from the north vent (center right) and south vent (center left) cones in the southwest corner of Halema‘uma‘u crater, as viewed during a monitoring overflight.
Icon used to refer to ShakeMap on Product landing pages. For example use, see https://staging-earthquake.usgs.gov/data/pager/background.php.
Icon used to refer to ShakeMap on Product landing pages. For example use, see https://staging-earthquake.usgs.gov/data/pager/background.php.
Computer simulation of shaking during the April 14, 2025 M5.2 Julian, CA earthquake. As the waves propagate away from the epicenter they interact with different geologic materials, which can slow down and amplify the shaking.
Computer simulation of shaking during the April 14, 2025 M5.2 Julian, CA earthquake. As the waves propagate away from the epicenter they interact with different geologic materials, which can slow down and amplify the shaking.
Well look at this mess! What’s going on?
We’re just south of Mammoth Hot Springs at a place informally known as the Hoodoos. The official designation for the area is Silver Gate, named by an early Yellowstone National Park visitor because of the way the road wound between the closely spaced white and gray boulders.
Well look at this mess! What’s going on?
We’re just south of Mammoth Hot Springs at a place informally known as the Hoodoos. The official designation for the area is Silver Gate, named by an early Yellowstone National Park visitor because of the way the road wound between the closely spaced white and gray boulders.
The effects of deglaciation on the slope stability of glacial valleys have increasing importance in the context of climate change, with a role on the susceptibility to large-volume rock slides or rock avalanches and catastrophic cascading geohazards.
The effects of deglaciation on the slope stability of glacial valleys have increasing importance in the context of climate change, with a role on the susceptibility to large-volume rock slides or rock avalanches and catastrophic cascading geohazards.
Is it true roads in Yellowstone National Park are melting? Whatever you might have heard, it's nothing new and it's not due to increased volcanic activity. Get up-to-speed in this month's update from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (March 2025).
Is it true roads in Yellowstone National Park are melting? Whatever you might have heard, it's nothing new and it's not due to increased volcanic activity. Get up-to-speed in this month's update from the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (March 2025).
The global ocean is a significant carbon sink, absorbing about a third of all atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (Gruber et al., 2019).
The global ocean is a significant carbon sink, absorbing about a third of all atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (Gruber et al., 2019).
The global ocean is a significant carbon sink, absorbing about a third of all atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (Gruber et al., 2019).
The global ocean is a significant carbon sink, absorbing about a third of all atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (Gruber et al., 2019).
USGS scientists remember where they were during the 1992 Landers earthquake in Southern California
USGS scientists remember where they were during the 1992 Landers earthquake in Southern California
USGS seismologist Susan Hough recalls what the 1992 Landers earthquake felt like from Pasadena, CA.
USGS seismologist Susan Hough recalls what the 1992 Landers earthquake felt like from Pasadena, CA.
USGS seismologist Andrew Michael talks about the remote location of the 1992 Landers earthquake and how researchers were able to use satellite data to better see the quake’s impacts.
USGS seismologist Andrew Michael talks about the remote location of the 1992 Landers earthquake and how researchers were able to use satellite data to better see the quake’s impacts.
USGS seismologist Susan Hough talks about her role following the 1992 Landers earthquake and seismic monitoring stations in Southern California.
USGS seismologist Susan Hough talks about her role following the 1992 Landers earthquake and seismic monitoring stations in Southern California.
USGS field technician Scott Lydeen recalls what the aftermath of the 1992 Landers earthquake looked like.
USGS field technician Scott Lydeen recalls what the aftermath of the 1992 Landers earthquake looked like.
USGS seismologist Susan Hough described the Southern California Seismic Network and how it was used for the 1992 Landers earthquake.
USGS seismologist Susan Hough described the Southern California Seismic Network and how it was used for the 1992 Landers earthquake.
A coastal camera located on Medeira Beach, Florida near the Shoreline Island Resort.
A coastal camera located on Medeira Beach, Florida near the Shoreline Island Resort.
This static image is from a USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory research camera located at the Johnston Ridge Observatory, north of Mount St. Helens. The view is to the south. This camera is intended to assist the USGS with situational awareness. At times, clouds, rain, and snow obscure visibility.
This static image is from a USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory research camera located at the Johnston Ridge Observatory, north of Mount St. Helens. The view is to the south. This camera is intended to assist the USGS with situational awareness. At times, clouds, rain, and snow obscure visibility.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
Two video cameras are installed atop a utility pole near the northernmost point of land in the United States at Nuvuk (Point Barrow), Alaska. The cameras point northwest toward the Arctic Ocean and the boundary between the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Every half hour during daylight hours, the cameras collect snapshots and video for 10 minutes.
