Publications
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What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning
We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW shaking forecasts including site conditions (which ca
Authors
Sarah E. Minson, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Jessie Kate Saunders, Sara McBride, Stephen Wu, Annemarie S. Baltay, Kevin R. Milner
National strategy for landslide loss reduction
Executive SummaryLandslide hazards are present in all 50 States and most U.S. territories, and they affect lives, property, infrastructure, and the environment. Landslides are the downslope movement of earth materials under the force of gravity. They can occur without any obvious trigger. Widespread or severe landslide events are often driven by such hazards as hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanic
Authors
Jonathan W. Godt, Nathan J. Wood, Alice Pennaz, Connor M. Dacey, Benjamin B. Mirus, Lauren N. Schaefer, Stephen L. Slaughter
Seismic sources in the aleutian cradle of tsunamis
No abstract available.
Authors
Robert C. Witter, Richard W. Briggs, Tina Dura, Simon E. Engelhart, Alan Nelson
A study on the effect of site response on California seismic hazard map assessment
Prior studies have repeatedly shown that probabilistic seismic hazard maps from several different countries predict higher shaking than that observed. Previous map assessments have not, however, considered the influence of site response on hazard. Seismologists have long acknowledged the influence of near-surface geology, in particular low-impedance sediment layers, on earthquake ground-motion at
Authors
Molly M. Gallahue, Leah Marschall Salditch, Madeleine C. Lucas, James S. Neely, Seth Stein, Norman A. Abrahamson, Tessa Williams, Susan E. Hough
Insights on multistage rock avalanche behavior from runout modeling constrained by seismic inversions
Inversion of low-frequency regional seismic records to solve for a time series of bulk forces exerted on the earth by a landslide (a force-time function) is increasingly being used to infer volumes and dynamics of large, highly energetic landslides, such as rock avalanches and flowslides, and to provide calibration information on event dynamics and volumes for numerical landslide runout models. Mu
Authors
Andrew Mitchell, Kate E. Allstadt, David L. George, Jordan Aaron, Scott McDougall, Jeffrey R. Moore, Brian Menounous
Testing the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system using synthesized earthquake sequences
We test the behavior of the United States (US) West Coast ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system during temporally close earthquake pairs to understand current performance and limitations. We consider performance metrics based on source parameter and ground‐motion forecast accuracy, as well as on alerting timeliness. We generate ground‐motion times series for synthesized earthquake seque
Authors
Maren Böse, Jennifer Andrews, Colin T O'Rourke, Deborah L. Kilb, Angela Lux, Julian Bunn, Jeffrey McGuire
Evolution of design ground motions in California: NEHRP 2009 to 2020
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is used in construction codes, such as the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Provisions, to develop ground motions for structural and geotechnical design. When the NSHM is updated (e.g. changes to its earthquake rupture forecast or ground motion models), or the manner in which it is implemented in constructio
Authors
Stephen Eugene Waldvogel, Andrew James Makdisi, Katrina Sanguyo Peralta, Henry (Ben) Mason, Nicolas Luco, Sanaz Rezaeian
A theoretical framework for integrating ground failure models into regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines
A variety of models exist for characterizing earthquake-induced ground failures, but application of these models towards regional seismic performance assessments of buried pipelines remains challenging. One challenge is that ground failures often occur at localized geospatial scales while buried pipelines are spatially distributed over long distances. In this study, we propose a theoretical framew
Authors
N. Simon Kwong, Kishor S. Jaiswal
Spatially continuous models of aleatory variability in seismic site response for southern California
We develop an empirical, spatially continuous model for the single-station within-event (ϕSS) component of earthquake ground motion variability in the Los Angeles area. ϕSS represents event-to-event variability in site response or remaining variability due to path effects not captured by ground motion models. Site-specific values of ϕSS at permanent seismic network stations were estimated during o
Authors
Grace Alexandra Parker, Annemarie S. Baltay, Eric M. Thompson
Performance of NGA-East GMMs and site amplification models relative to CENA ground motions
We investigate bias in ground motions predicted for Central and Eastern North America (CENA) using ground motion models (GMMs) combined with site amplification models developed in the NGA-East project. Bias is anticipated because of de-coupled procedures used in the development of the GMMs and site amplification models. The NGA-East GMMs were mainly calibrated by adjusting CENA data to a reference
Authors
Maria E. Ramos-Sepulveda, Grace Alexandra Parker, Meibai Li, Okan Ilhan, Youssef M. A. Hashash, Ellen Rathje, Jonathan P. Stewart
Applicability of the NGA-West2 damping scaling factors to ground motions recorded in France
This paper presents a summary of the applicability of the NGA-West2 damping scaling factors to ground motions recorded in France. In developing ground motion models for response spectra, generally, the damping of the oscillator is set to a reference value of five percent of the critical damping. Damping scaling factors (DSF) are used to translate the predictions of 5%-damped ground motion models t
Authors
M. Bahrampouri, Sanaz Rezaeian, P. Traversa, L. Al Atik, S. Mazzoni, Y. Bozorgnia
Earthquake scenario development in the 2023 USGS NSHM update
Earthquake scenarios are generally selected to serve a wide variety of local and regional needs ranging from testing a community’s ability to respond to earthquakes to developing proactive targeted mitigation strategies for minimizing impending risk. These deterministic scenarios can also be used to communicate seismic hazard and risk to audiences who are not well versed in more complex methods li
Authors
Robert Edward Chase, Kishor S. Jaiswal, Mark D. Petersen