Book Chapters

Predicting the consequences of alternative actions in terms of the objectives is central to decision making. Modeling in the broadest sense, from simple to complex and based on data or expert judgment, comprises the essential toolkit for making decision-relevant predictions. Gaps in knowledge and the resulting uncertainty can make predictive modeling challenging. Gathering information to addres

Many decisions are made in the face of uncertainty that either cannot or will not be reduced, and the challenge to the decision maker is how to manage the risk imposed by that uncertainty. This chapter will introduce the field of risk analysis, focusing on both the scientific tasks (estimating the probabilities and magnitudes of possible outcomes) and the policy-relevant value judgments needed (un

Each year, the Director of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service), with advice from a Fisheries Management Team, allocates funding to support the National Fish Habitat Action Plan. The Service distributes the funds to Fish Habitat Partnerships (FHPs), who, in turn, undertake projects that “protect, restore, or enhance fish and aquatic habitats or otherwise directly support habitat-related pr

Often, a decision maker is faced with a series of linked decisions, rather than an isolated one-off decision. In natural resource management, it is common to make a similar type of decision on a regular basis (e.g., annually). Such linked decisions have two important properties: they are dynamic, that is, the actions taken early on affect immediate outcomes as well as the effects of actions taken

With ongoing habitat loss and degradation, ever-increasing threats to biodiversity, and limited funding for conservation and management, nearly every natural resource manager routinely faces difficult resource allocation problems. Funding and capacity for natural resource management rarely meet the need, and informed resource allocations are increasingly important. These decision problems include

To be effective, managers of imperiled species must face the unavoidable tradeoff between conservation benefits and constrained budgets and must not be paralyzed by scientific uncertainty. Decision analysis can help meet these challenges when used to develop cost-effective strategies to recover or improve the status of species. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, along with state partners, develop

Hawai‘i’s high-elevation forests provide a critical refuge from disease for native forest birds. However, global warming is facilitating the encroachment of mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit into increasingly higher elevations of remaining refugia, threatening the viability of the forest birds across the islands. Multiple management actions to address the threat of disease have been propos

Coastal wetlands are rich and diverse ecosystems with a wide variety of birdlife and other natural resources. Decision making for coastal wetland management is difficult given the complex nature of these ecological systems and the frequent need to meet multiple objectives for varied resources. Management challenges in the coastal zone are exacerbated by uncertainty about sea level rise and impac

Urban environments offer habitat for many species of animals. Although some of those are ubiquitous and/or undesirable, others are native and in some cases, of conservation value. In many cases, urban wildlife populations are a source of enjoyment for human residents, who sometimes invest considerable amounts in attracting them to yards and public spaces. Their presence there can serve an importan

The success of wildlife reintroduction efforts rests on the demographic performance of released animals. Whooping Cranes in the eastern migratory population—reintroduced beginning in 2001—demonstrate adequate survival but poor reproduction. Managers and scientists have used an iterative process of learning and management to respond to this management challenge, but by 2015, uncertainty about the c

Conserving species requires managing threats, including habitat loss. One approach to managing habitat loss is to identify and protect habitat in networks of reserves. Reserve network design is a type of resource allocation problem: how can we choose the most effective reserve network design given available resources? We undertook development and implementation of a patch dynamics model to allow u

To support global drought early warning, the Climate Hazards Center (CHC) at the University of California, Santa Barbara developed the Climate Hazards center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) dataset, in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and NASA SERVIR. Specifically designed to support early warning applications, CHIRPS has high a spatial resolution (0.05°), a long period of