Modeling Tools

Low-elevation Pacific islands are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise and sudden flooding events. The largely low-lying islands of Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI), that extend 1,930 km beyond the main Hawaiian Islands, are a World Heritage Site and part of the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument. The NWHI support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world, provide...

The Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) is a species of considerable conservation concern in North America, primarily due to widespread population declines attributable to habitat loss (Confer et al. 1992, Buehler et al. ) and displacement by the Blue-winged Warbler (V. pinus) in areas of sympatry (Gill 1980, 2004; Will 1986). Recent research highlighted an important mechanism in the...

Mammalian predation is a major factor influencing waterfowl productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region. Rates of predation of waterfowl nests differ by predator species, so understanding landscape or spatial patterns in predator density are desired by many natural resource managers. Spatial predictions for the occurrence and relative abundance of predators would allow natural resource managers to...

The Shenandoah salamander is an endangered salamander that is at risk of extinction due to its small, high-elevation range, competition with the co-occurring red-backed salamander, and the predicted future climate in the Appalachian mountain range. We are working with multiple partners to understand the current status of the species, predict future extinction risk, and continually engage...

Long-term monitoring data in the Manatee Individual Photo-identification System (MIPS), developed and coordinated by WARC-Sirenia Project in collaboration with Florida’s Fish and Wildlife Research Institute and Mote Marine Laboratory, are the basis for modeling manatee demography rates.

Manatees are tropical to subtropical in distribution and, with few exceptions, Florida is the northern limit of their natural winter range. The availability of warm-water habitat during winter is critical for the future persistence of the population in Florida.

The Gulf sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus desotoi, has been listed as Threatened since 1991. Beginning in 1986, USGS has been investigating sturgeon population abundance and ecology throughout its range, but mostly in the Suwannee River.

Critical information predicting condition changes in manatee habitat resulting from the alteration of freshwater flows to estuaries is needed to develop the PSRP Detailed Design and PSRP Operations Plan components and complete consultation under the Endangered Species Act.

Unexplained heterogeneity in statistical models of animal responses to their physical environment is reasonable to expect because the measured habitat resources are a constraint on—but not the sole determinant of—abundance, survival, fecundity, or fitness. The ecological understanding and reliability of management predictions based on animal habitat models can be improved by shifting focus from...

Mathematical and statistical models are powerful research tools that play several important roles in conceptualizing and understanding the structure and dynamics of complicated ecological systems, including developing mechanistic hypotheses pertaining to ecological systems, designing studies that elucidate ecosystem structure and function, and extracting information from data.

Freshwater wetlands provide critical habitat for a diverse array of organisms, including many amphibians. Yet, under the threat of climate change, these habitats are among the most imperiled ecosystems on Earth.

Using historic maps and contemporary imagery, we will quantify and synthesize existing data on the distribution and abundance of shorebirds in North Carolina and changes in habitats related to storms, such as Hurricane Sandy; coastal development, such as the Intracoastal Waterway; inlet modifications; and shoreline erosion to give us a better understanding of historic trends for shorebirds and...