Patrick Barnard
Patrick is the Research Director for the Climate Impacts and Coastal Processes Team, which includes overseeing the development and application of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), coastal monitoring and process-based studies of beaches across California, and research investigating the link between climate variability and coastal hazards across the Pacific Ocean basin.
Dr. Patrick Barnard has been a coastal geologist with the USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz since 2003, and is the Research Director of the Climate Impacts and Coastal Processes Team. His research focuses on storm- and climate-related changes to the beaches and estuaries bordering the Pacific Ocean. His research has been published in over 80 peer-reviewed scientific papers, including Nature, and presented over 100 times at scientific conferences and universities. He serves on numerous regional, national and international scientific review panels related to climate change and coastal hazards. He received a BA from Williams College, MS from University of South Florida, and PhD from UC Riverside.
Science and Products
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Changes in liquefaction severity in the San Francisco Bay Area with sea-level rise
This paper studies the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction triggering and severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California, for the M 7.0 “HayWired” earthquake scenario along the Hayward fault. This work emerged from stakeholder engagement for the US Geological Survey releases of the HayWired earthquake scenario and the Coastal Storm Modeling System projects, in which local planners an
Authors
Alex R.R. Grant, Anne Wein, Kevin M. Befus, Juliette Finzi-Hart, Mike Frame, Rachel Volentine, Patrick L. Barnard, Keith L. Knudsen
Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model
Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nu
Authors
D. L. Anderson, P. Ruggiero, F. J. Mendez, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, M. Merrifield, A. Rueda, L. Cagigal, J. M. Marra
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of
Authors
Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der Wegen
Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Jenifer Dugan, Henry M. Page, Nathan J. Wood, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Daniel Cayan, Li H. Erikson, David A. Hubbard, Monique Myers, John M. Melack, Samuel F. Iacobellis
Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections o
Authors
Janaka Bamunawala, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ali Dastgheib, Robert .J. Nichols, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, T. A. J. G. Sirisena, Trang Minh Duong, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Ad van der Spek
The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions
Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditi
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Laura Cagigal, Jennifer Montaño, Ana Rueda, Fernando Mendez, Giovanni Coco, Patrick L. Barnard
Assessment of flood forecast products for a coupled tributary-Coastal model
Compound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanographic conditions, and vice versa for coastal flood models. Here, we describe the development of an operational, integrated coastal-watershed flooding model
Authors
Robert Cifelli, Lynn E. Johnson, Jungho Kim, Tim Coleman, Greg Pratt, Liv M. Herdman, Rosanne C. Martyr-Koller, Juliette Finzi-Hart, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Michael Anderson
The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both sho
Authors
Schuyler A Smith, Patrick L. Barnard
Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century
Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution
Authors
J. Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, Trang Minh Duong, T.A.J.G. Sirisena
Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California
Projected sea-level rise will raise coastal water tables, resulting in groundwater hazards that threaten shallow infrastructure and coastal ecosystem resilience. Here we model a range of sea-level rise scenarios to assess the responses of water tables across the diverse topography and climates of the California coast. With 1 m of sea-level rise, areas flooded from below are predicted to expand ~50
Authors
K.M. Befus, Patrick L. Barnard, Daniel J. Hoover, Juliette Finzi Hart, Clifford I. Voss
A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century
Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the cli
Authors
Janaka Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Rosh Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Trang M. Duong, Patrick L. Barnard, Jeewanthi Gangani Sirisena
Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pac
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
Non-USGS Publications**
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Style and timing of glacial and paraglacial sedimentation in a monsoonal-influenced high Himalayan environment, the upper Bhagirathi Valley, Garhwal Himalaya. Sedimentary Geology, Volume 165, p. 199-221, doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2003.11.009
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Late Quaternary (Holocene) landscape evolution of a monsoon-influenced high Himalayan valley, Gori Ganga, Nanda Devi, NE Garhwal. Geomorphology, Volume 61 (1-2), p. 91-110, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.002
Barnard, P.L., 2003. The Timing and Nature of Glaciofluvial Erosion and Resedimentation in the Himalaya: the Role of Glacial and Paraglacial Processes in the Evolution of High Mountain Landscapes. Published Ph.D. Thesis, University of California, Riverside, 295 pp.
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Morphodynamics of the barrier-inlet system, west-central Florida. Marine Geology, Volume 200 (1-4), p. 77-101, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00178-6
Finkel, R.C., Owen, L.A., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Beryllium-10 dating of Mount Everest moraines indicates a strong monsoonal influence and glacial synchroneity throughout the Himalaya. Geology, Volume 31, p. 561-564, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0561:BDOMEM>2.0.CO;2
Owen, L.A., Finkel, R.C., Ma, H., Spencer, J.Q., Derbyshire, E., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in northeastern Tibet. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 115 (11), p. 1356-1364, doi:10.1130/B25314.1
Owen, L.A., Ma, H., Derbyshire, E., Spencer, J.Q., Barnard, P.L., Zeng, Y.N., Finkel, R.C. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. The timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the La Ji Mountains, NE Tibet: evidence for restricted glaciation during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplemental Volume 130, p. 263-276, ISBN 978-3-443-21130-1
Owen, L.A., Spencer, J.Q., Ma, H., Barnard, P.L., Derbyshire, E., Finkel, R.C., Caffee, M.W. and Zeng, Y.N., 2003. Timing of Late Quaternary glaciation along the southwestern slopes of the Qilian Shan, Tibet. Boreas, Volume 32, p. 281-291, doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2003.tb01083.x
Van der Woerd, J., Owen, L.A., Tapponnier, P., Xiwei, X., Kervyn, F., Finkel, R.C. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Giant, ~M8 earthquake-triggered ice avalanches in the eastern Kunlun Shan, Northern Tibet: characteristics, nature and dynamics. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 116 (3), p. 394-406, doi:10.1130/B25317.1
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2001. Natural and human-induced landsliding in the Garhwal Himalaya of Northern India. Geomorphology, Volume 40, p. 21-35, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00035-6
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2000. How anthropogenic factors in the back-barrier influence tidal inlet stability: examples from the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. In: Pye, K. and Allen, J.R.L. (Eds.), Coastal and Estuarine Environments: sedimentology, geomorphology and geoarchaeology. Geological Society, London, Special Publication Number 175, p. 293-303, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2000.175.01.21
Barnard, P.L. and Owen, L.A., 2000. A selected bibliography for Late Quaternary glaciation in Tibet and Bordering Mountains. Quaternary International, Volume 65/66, p. 193-212
Barnard, P.L. and Davis, R.A., Jr., 1999. Anthropogenic vs. natural influences on inlet evolution: west-central Florida. Coastal Sediments ’99 Conference Proceedings, Fire Island, New York, Volume 2, p. 1489-1504
Barnard, P.L., 1998. Historical Morphodynamics of Inlet Channels: West-Central Florida. Master’s Thesis, University of South Florida, 179 pp.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
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Changes in liquefaction severity in the San Francisco Bay Area with sea-level rise
This paper studies the impacts of sea-level rise on liquefaction triggering and severity around the San Francisco Bay Area, California, for the M 7.0 “HayWired” earthquake scenario along the Hayward fault. This work emerged from stakeholder engagement for the US Geological Survey releases of the HayWired earthquake scenario and the Coastal Storm Modeling System projects, in which local planners an
Authors
Alex R.R. Grant, Anne Wein, Kevin M. Befus, Juliette Finzi-Hart, Mike Frame, Rachel Volentine, Patrick L. Barnard, Keith L. Knudsen
Projecting climate dependent coastal flood risk with a hybrid statistical dynamical model
Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nu
Authors
D. L. Anderson, P. Ruggiero, F. J. Mendez, Patrick L. Barnard, Li H. Erikson, Andrea C. O'Neill, M. Merrifield, A. Rueda, L. Cagigal, J. M. Marra
Drivers of extreme water levels in a large, urban, high-energy coastal estuary – A case study of the San Francisco Bay
Reliable and long-term hindcast data of water levels are essential in quantifying return period and values of extreme water levels. In order to inform design decisions on a local flood control district level, process-based numerical modeling has proven an essential tool to provide the needed temporal and spatial coverage for different extreme value analysis methods. To determine the importance of
Authors
Cornelis M. Nederhoff, Rohin Saleh, Babak Tehranirad, Liv M. Herdman, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Mick Van der Wegen
Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems
As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the
Authors
Patrick L. Barnard, Jenifer Dugan, Henry M. Page, Nathan J. Wood, Juliette A. Finzi Hart, Daniel Cayan, Li H. Erikson, David A. Hubbard, Monique Myers, John M. Melack, Samuel F. Iacobellis
Twenty-first-century projections of shoreline change along inlet-interrupted coastlines
Sandy coastlines adjacent to tidal inlets are highly dynamic and widespread landforms, where large changes are expected due to climatic and anthropogenic influences. To adequately assess these important changes, both oceanic (e.g., sea-level rise) and terrestrial (e.g., fluvial sediment supply) processes that govern the local sediment budget must be considered. Here, we present novel projections o
Authors
Janaka Bamunawala, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ali Dastgheib, Robert .J. Nichols, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, T. A. J. G. Sirisena, Trang Minh Duong, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher, Ad van der Spek
The application of ensemble wave forcing to quantify uncertainty of shoreline change predictions
Reliable predictions and accompanying uncertainty estimates of coastal evolution on decadal to centennial time scales are increasingly sought. So far, most coastal change projections rely on a single, deterministic realization of the unknown future wave climate, often derived from a global climate model. Yet, deterministic projections do not account for the stochastic nature of future wave conditi
Authors
Sean Vitousek, Laura Cagigal, Jennifer Montaño, Ana Rueda, Fernando Mendez, Giovanni Coco, Patrick L. Barnard
Assessment of flood forecast products for a coupled tributary-Coastal model
Compound flooding, resulting from a combination of riverine and coastal processes, is a complex but important hazard to resolve along urbanized shorelines in the vicinity of river mouths. However, inland flooding models rarely consider oceanographic conditions, and vice versa for coastal flood models. Here, we describe the development of an operational, integrated coastal-watershed flooding model
Authors
Robert Cifelli, Lynn E. Johnson, Jungho Kim, Tim Coleman, Greg Pratt, Liv M. Herdman, Rosanne C. Martyr-Koller, Juliette Finzi-Hart, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard, Michael Anderson
The impacts of the 2015/2016 El Niño on California's sandy beaches
The El Niño Southern Oscillation is the most dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the Pacific. The 2015/2016 El Niño event was one of the strongest of the last 145 years, resulting in anomalously high wave energy across the U.S. West Coast, and record coastal erosion for many California beaches. To better manage coastal resources, it is critical to understand the impacts of both sho
Authors
Schuyler A Smith, Patrick L. Barnard
Probabilistic application of an integrated catchment-estuary-coastal system model to assess the evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts over the 21st century
Inlet-interrupted sandy coasts are dynamic and complex coastal systems with continuously evolving geomorphological behaviors under the influences of both climate change and human activities. These coastal systems are of great importance to society (e.g., providing habitats, navigation, and recreational activities) and are affected by both oceanic and terrestrial processes. Therefore, the evolution
Authors
J. Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Patrick L. Barnard, Trang Minh Duong, T.A.J.G. Sirisena
Increasing threat of coastal groundwater hazards from sea-level rise in California
Projected sea-level rise will raise coastal water tables, resulting in groundwater hazards that threaten shallow infrastructure and coastal ecosystem resilience. Here we model a range of sea-level rise scenarios to assess the responses of water tables across the diverse topography and climates of the California coast. With 1 m of sea-level rise, areas flooded from below are predicted to expand ~50
Authors
K.M. Befus, Patrick L. Barnard, Daniel J. Hoover, Juliette Finzi Hart, Clifford I. Voss
A holistic modelling approach to project the evolution of inlet-interrupted coastlines over the 21st century
Approximately one quarter of the World’s sandy beaches, most of which are interrupted by tidal inlets, are eroding. Understanding the long-term (50-100 year) evolution of inlet-interrupted coasts in a changing climate is therefore of great importance for coastal zone planners and managers. This study therefore focuses on the development and piloting of an innovative model that can simulate the cli
Authors
Janaka Bamunawala, Ali Dastgheib, Rosh Ranasinghe, Ad van der Spek, Shreedhar Maskey, A. Brad Murray, Trang M. Duong, Patrick L. Barnard, Jeewanthi Gangani Sirisena
Impacts of sea-level rise on the tidal reach of California coastal rivers using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)
In coastal rivers, the interactions between tides and fluvial discharge affect local ecology, sedimentation, river dynamics, river mouth configuration, and the flooding potential in adjacent wetlands and low-lying areas. With sea-level rise, the tidal reach within coastal rivers can expand upstream, impacting river dynamics and increasing flood risk across a much greater area. Rivers along the Pac
Authors
Andrea C. O'Neill, Li H. Erikson, Patrick L. Barnard
Non-USGS Publications**
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Style and timing of glacial and paraglacial sedimentation in a monsoonal-influenced high Himalayan environment, the upper Bhagirathi Valley, Garhwal Himalaya. Sedimentary Geology, Volume 165, p. 199-221, doi:10.1016/j.sedgeo.2003.11.009
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2004. Late Quaternary (Holocene) landscape evolution of a monsoon-influenced high Himalayan valley, Gori Ganga, Nanda Devi, NE Garhwal. Geomorphology, Volume 61 (1-2), p. 91-110, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.002
Barnard, P.L., 2003. The Timing and Nature of Glaciofluvial Erosion and Resedimentation in the Himalaya: the Role of Glacial and Paraglacial Processes in the Evolution of High Mountain Landscapes. Published Ph.D. Thesis, University of California, Riverside, 295 pp.
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Morphodynamics of the barrier-inlet system, west-central Florida. Marine Geology, Volume 200 (1-4), p. 77-101, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00178-6
Finkel, R.C., Owen, L.A., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Beryllium-10 dating of Mount Everest moraines indicates a strong monsoonal influence and glacial synchroneity throughout the Himalaya. Geology, Volume 31, p. 561-564, doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2003)031<0561:BDOMEM>2.0.CO;2
Owen, L.A., Finkel, R.C., Ma, H., Spencer, J.Q., Derbyshire, E., Barnard, P.L. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. Timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in northeastern Tibet. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 115 (11), p. 1356-1364, doi:10.1130/B25314.1
Owen, L.A., Ma, H., Derbyshire, E., Spencer, J.Q., Barnard, P.L., Zeng, Y.N., Finkel, R.C. and Caffee, M.W., 2003. The timing and style of Late Quaternary glaciation in the La Ji Mountains, NE Tibet: evidence for restricted glaciation during the latter part of the Last Glacial. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, Supplemental Volume 130, p. 263-276, ISBN 978-3-443-21130-1
Owen, L.A., Spencer, J.Q., Ma, H., Barnard, P.L., Derbyshire, E., Finkel, R.C., Caffee, M.W. and Zeng, Y.N., 2003. Timing of Late Quaternary glaciation along the southwestern slopes of the Qilian Shan, Tibet. Boreas, Volume 32, p. 281-291, doi:10.1111/j.1502-3885.2003.tb01083.x
Van der Woerd, J., Owen, L.A., Tapponnier, P., Xiwei, X., Kervyn, F., Finkel, R.C. and Barnard, P.L., 2003. Giant, ~M8 earthquake-triggered ice avalanches in the eastern Kunlun Shan, Northern Tibet: characteristics, nature and dynamics. Geological Society of America Bulletin, Volume 116 (3), p. 394-406, doi:10.1130/B25317.1
Barnard, P.L., Owen, L.A., Sharma, M.C. and Finkel, R.C., 2001. Natural and human-induced landsliding in the Garhwal Himalaya of Northern India. Geomorphology, Volume 40, p. 21-35, doi:10.1016/S0169-555X(01)00035-6
Davis, R.A., Jr. and Barnard, P.L., 2000. How anthropogenic factors in the back-barrier influence tidal inlet stability: examples from the Gulf Coast of Florida, USA. In: Pye, K. and Allen, J.R.L. (Eds.), Coastal and Estuarine Environments: sedimentology, geomorphology and geoarchaeology. Geological Society, London, Special Publication Number 175, p. 293-303, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2000.175.01.21
Barnard, P.L. and Owen, L.A., 2000. A selected bibliography for Late Quaternary glaciation in Tibet and Bordering Mountains. Quaternary International, Volume 65/66, p. 193-212
Barnard, P.L. and Davis, R.A., Jr., 1999. Anthropogenic vs. natural influences on inlet evolution: west-central Florida. Coastal Sediments ’99 Conference Proceedings, Fire Island, New York, Volume 2, p. 1489-1504
Barnard, P.L., 1998. Historical Morphodynamics of Inlet Channels: West-Central Florida. Master’s Thesis, University of South Florida, 179 pp.
**Disclaimer: The views expressed in Non-USGS publications are those of the author and do not represent the views of the USGS, Department of the Interior, or the U.S. Government.
Filter Total Items: 30