Predictive models and NowCasting

Disease-causing (pathogenic) organisms and cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs) that produce toxins are widespread human-health and environmental threats to our recreational and drinking waters.

Escherichia coli (E. coli) is one type of bacteria used to indicate when pathogens may be present. Microcystin is the most frequently detected toxin in freshwaters produced by certain species of cyanobacteria (the bacteria that cause cyanoHABs).

However, traditional laboratory methods for detection of E. coli or microcystin often take too long to be useful for prompt public health protection. To address this, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is collaborating with state and local partners to develop models that provide real-time estimates of E. coli and (or) microcystin levels at inland and Great Lakes beaches and drinking-water intakes. 

Sources/Usage: Public Domain. View Media Details

Real-time estimates based on mathematical models are currently provided for 25 beaches and one recreational site through the Great Lakes NowCast (usgs.gov). This multi-state effort provides a single source for public notification and for partners to compile and manage data.