Assessing Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems in the South Central United States to Inform Adaptation Strategies
Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but a changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these enhanced stressors requires that farmers, ranchers, and wildlife managers have the necessary information and resources to guide adaptive management decisions. Not only do they need better forecasts of drought severity, but also an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale. To provide these resources, this project proposes to document and map climate change vulnerability of major grasslands and wetlands on the southern Great Plains of New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. This analysis will be conducted using the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI). The results of this analysis will inform adaptive conservation of ecosystems and species among land planners and managers.
The HCCVI has been successfully applied to regional analysis of major vegetation types or ecological systems, producing maps, tabular data, and text products that measure the vulnerability and impacts of climate change over time. The HCCVI summarizes three key measures: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. Climate change exposure is determined using an observed climate baseline (from 1949 to 1980) and projections for the early to mid-21st century (2010-2039 and 2040-2069). Measures of ecosystem sensitivity may include landscape integrity, invasive plant species, and altered fire regime. The adaptive capacity of an ecosystem is evaluated by the analysis of topographic complexity, diversity within species groups (e.g., warm vs. cool season grasses), and vulnerability of keystone species (e.g., prairie dogs). HCCVI results provide a description of all components assessed, summary results, and ecological system -specific considerations for adaptive management responses. Map products generated from the HCCVI include climate driven transitions among neighboring vegetation types or ecological systems as well as maps indicating zones of predicted relative climate stability over time.
The project researchers will work closely with tribes and public wildlife managers on public lands to apply these results to natural resource management decisions. The team will also make results publicly accessible over NatureServe Explorer and generate multiple ArcGIS StoryMaps
- Source: USGS Sciencebase (id: 6000c393d34e592d8671f603)
Ecosystems experience stress from a number of factors, but a changing climate exacerbates those stressors and alters ecosystem and soil productivity, leading to degradation of wildlife habitat and agricultural productivity. Response to these enhanced stressors requires that farmers, ranchers, and wildlife managers have the necessary information and resources to guide adaptive management decisions. Not only do they need better forecasts of drought severity, but also an understanding of the likely effects of drought on vegetation and soil at the decadal scale. To provide these resources, this project proposes to document and map climate change vulnerability of major grasslands and wetlands on the southern Great Plains of New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. This analysis will be conducted using the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI). The results of this analysis will inform adaptive conservation of ecosystems and species among land planners and managers.
The HCCVI has been successfully applied to regional analysis of major vegetation types or ecological systems, producing maps, tabular data, and text products that measure the vulnerability and impacts of climate change over time. The HCCVI summarizes three key measures: Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. Climate change exposure is determined using an observed climate baseline (from 1949 to 1980) and projections for the early to mid-21st century (2010-2039 and 2040-2069). Measures of ecosystem sensitivity may include landscape integrity, invasive plant species, and altered fire regime. The adaptive capacity of an ecosystem is evaluated by the analysis of topographic complexity, diversity within species groups (e.g., warm vs. cool season grasses), and vulnerability of keystone species (e.g., prairie dogs). HCCVI results provide a description of all components assessed, summary results, and ecological system -specific considerations for adaptive management responses. Map products generated from the HCCVI include climate driven transitions among neighboring vegetation types or ecological systems as well as maps indicating zones of predicted relative climate stability over time.
The project researchers will work closely with tribes and public wildlife managers on public lands to apply these results to natural resource management decisions. The team will also make results publicly accessible over NatureServe Explorer and generate multiple ArcGIS StoryMaps
- Source: USGS Sciencebase (id: 6000c393d34e592d8671f603)