Creating a Decision Support Tool for Setting Sustainable Raptor Take Limits in a Changing Climate

Raptor populations are already seeing the effects of climate change through impacts on migration biology and vital rates (i.e. changes in the size and composition of a population). However, the decision framework used by the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) to estimate population trends and set allowable take limits from commercial and recreational activities does not take into account how birds of prey are affected by climate variability. Given that climate change is already impacting raptors, assumptions of unchanging population rates are increasingly unrealistic and cast doubt on predictions of flyway-scale allowable take derived from existing frameworks. Flyway-scale allowable take refers to take limits set for larger-scale population numbers occurring along migration routes or flyways. For this project the research team will develop a new decision support tool that explicitly includes climate variables to help the FWS set allowable take limits that are more biologically realistic over the timeframe of interest. In addition to benefiting the FWS, establishing take limits based on a more comprehensive set of climatic conditions could be used by other resource managers (e.g. state natural resource agencies and Tribal leadership) in making more informed decisions regarding allowable take limits and in developing mitigation measures to offset community raptor takes within their jurisdictions. To ensure transferability of decision tools, the research team has invited representatives from relevant stakeholder groups to participate in framing the decision problem, parameterizing models, evaluating alternative management strategies, and providing feedback on project deliverables. In addition to written and oral project updates, the research team will develop and maintain an online data warehouse where stakeholders and members of the public can access all data, model code, and output from this work.