Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty

Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds varies among species and regions, creating a major source of uncertainty for managers.

 

The goal of this project is to develop tools to support migratory bird management decision-making in the face of uncertain future climate and land use conditions. In order to identify and implement the most effective management strategies, decision-makers need to have both an understanding of the potential outcomes of different management actions and of how environmental conditions might change over time.

 

To address this need, researchers will (1) evaluate predictions of how changing climate conditions are expected to affect migratory birds and how these impacts could affect management decisions, and (2) work closely with managers to determine which areas of uncertainty could have the biggest impact on the success of decision-making. Researchers will then develop a decision-support framework for identifying optimal strategies for migratory bird management in the face of uncertain future climate and land use conditions. This work will focus on supporting key management decisions related to acquiring public lands for habitat, setting harvest regulations for waterfowl, and assessing allowable take of migratory birds.