The Impact of Future Changes in Climate on Breeding Waterfowl Pairs in the US Prairie Pothole Region

The Prairie Pothole Region is recognized as one of the most critical breeding habitats for waterfowl in North America and is used by an estimated 50–80 % of the continent’s breeding duck population. The ongoing acquisition program of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System has conserved approximately 1.3 million hectares of critical breeding-waterfowl habitat. This current conservation approach assumes that past distributions of waterfowl habitat and populations are relatively representative of future distributions, however, due to changes in the area’s hydrology this may not be the case.



Understanding how climate change may impact these wetland and grassland ecosystems is key for management agencies to set priorities for future conservation actions. The goal of this project is to co-produce novel information for land-management agencies to better plan for future impacts of climate change on the wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl pairs in the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region.



The researchers will use a mechanistic hydrology model with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service datasets that span multiple decades and predictive breeding waterfowl pair statistical models to simulate wetland-waterfowl responses under different climate futures. By working directly with scientists and decision makers at the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, the team will ensure delivery of actionable science that can readily inform the agency about potential climate-driven impacts to breeding waterfowl pairs in currently monitored wetlands. This project will generate new, more robust predictions of the future status of the wetland ecosystem and waterfowl habitat of the Prairie Pothole Region.