The Influence of Climate Change on the Vulnerability of At-Risk Amphibians to Disease and Invasive Species in the Northwest

The Pacific Northwest is a hotspot for temperate amphibian biodiversity and is home to many species of salamanders and frogs found nowhere else on earth. Changing climatic conditions threaten habitat for many of these species and may also enhance the risk of disease and invasive species encroachment. State and federal wildlife agencies are in the process of evaluating these threats, but information is lacking. Wildlife managers need to know: the availability of suitable habitat under different climate scenarios; the vulnerability of at-risk amphibians to different diseases, and how climate change will affect that vulnerability; and the potential future spread of harmful invasive species like American bullfrogs, which are not native to the Pacific Northwest.

This project will provide critical information about which amphibian species are most at risk from climate change, disease, and invasive bullfrogs, and which areas may represent refuges from these threats. For 14 at-risk amphibian species from throughout the Pacific Northwest this project will: 1) predict climate change-related alterations in habitat suitability, 2) evaluate climate change-related shifts in disease risk associated with amphibian chytrid pathogens and Ranavirus, 3) evaluate climate change-related shifts in risks of invasive American bullfrog,  4) create maps identifying habitats and populations at high risk of climate-driven changes in habitat suitability, disease, and bullfrog invasion, as well as potential refugia from these threats, and 5) develop a set of species and habitat-specific management interventions that may reduce climate-driven risk. In addition, this project will help state and federal wildlife agencies develop strategies for species conservation that are uniquely suited to the most prominent threats to each species. This project will improve climate resilience for these threatened and unique species, so that they can maintain their important role in Pacific Northwest ecosystems.