The Role of Phenotypic Plasticity in the Adaptive Capacity of Midwestern Fish and Wildlife

Virtually all species are experiencing the effects of modern climate change. Climate-induced extinction rates are accelerating, and up to one-sixth of species are predicted to go extinct by the end of this century. Given the unprecedented rate of modern climate change, species will be increasingly unable to shift in lockstep with emerging climate spaces, and as a result, phenotypic variation (e.g., body size, coat color, morphology) is a critical pathway by which species can adapt. Ecologists have documented remarkable examples of phenotypic plasticity in nature (changes in an organism's behavior, morphology, and physiology in response to a unique environment), but when the degree of plasticity can no longer match the rate of climate change a “mismatch” occurs. Such phenotypic mismatches are increasingly common, and thus, an outstanding question is whether climate-resilient phenotypes can be identified, managed, and optimized to buffer vulnerable species and populations from the adverse impacts of climate change.

The Midwest is facing significant changes in climate conditions (both directional warming and changes in variability) that complicate the conservation and management of wildlife populations and natural resources. Our project seeks to work with partners to explore the adaptive capacity of species to past and future climate change, identify climate-resilient phenotypes, advance a predictive modeling framework for incorporating phenotypic variation into decision making, and organize workshops to explore how adaptive capacity can better inform the management of fish and wildlife.