In order to assess and understand the potential impacts of climate change on important natural resources, managers, planners, and decision-makers need climate information at a local or regional scale. In general, Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide data at coarser scales than most natural resource managers need but Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are starting to deliver finer scale results. The project team will explore both dynamic downscaling products such as results from RCMs and statistical downscaling products generated at scales finer than the original projections.
The Northwest CSC has supported a series of projects that have either generated or tested downscaled climate data for the Pacific Northwest region. There is limited guidance, however, to assist researchers, practitioners, or decision makers in determining which climate projections, downscaling methods, or data sources might best meet their needs. The project team is reviewing the reports and web sites of the previously funded projects to provide a general evaluation of different downscaling methods and to assess how well the state of current climate models and downscaling addresses the needs of regional resource managers. They will also use results from a hydrological and a vegetation model to explore the influence of the downscaling method on projections of vegetation, fire and streamflow. Furthermore, guidance will be provided on uncertainty within downscaled projections for different Northwest landscapes (e.g. coastal areas, complex topography areas) and on the usability, suitability and utility of downscaled information for a range of potential users.
