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Publications

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Physics‐based evaluation of the maximum magnitude of potential earthquakes induced by the Hutubi (China) underground gas storage

The world’s largest underground gas storage facility in Hutubi (HUGS), China, is a unique case where cyclic gas injection‐extraction induced both seismicity and ground deformation. To assess the potential for future induced seismicity, we develop a framework physically based on a well‐constrained hydro‐geomechanical model and on fully coupled poroelastic simulations. We first interpret the spatiot
Authors
Guoyan Jiang, Lin Liu, Andrew J. Barbour, Renqi Lu, Hongfeng Yang

A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holoce
Authors
Kim Blisniuk, Katherine Scharer, Warren Sharp, Roland Burgmann, Colin Amos, Michael Rymer

Earthquake magnitudes from dynamic strain

Dynamic strains have never played a role in determining local earthquake magnitudes, which are routinely set by displacement waveforms from seismic instrumentation (e.g., ML⁠). We present a magnitude scale for local earthquakes based on broadband dynamic strain waveforms. This scale is derived from the peak root‐mean‐squared strains (⁠A⁠) in 4589 records of dynamic strain associated with 365 crust
Authors
Andrew J. Barbour, John O. Langbein, Noha Sameh Ahmed Farghal

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Ground motion models in the central and eastern US

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) is the scientific foundation of seismic design regulations in the United States and is regularly updated to consider the best available science and data. The 2018 update of the conterminous US NSHM includes major changes to the underlying ground motion models (GMMs). Most of the changes are motivated by the new multi-p
Authors
Sanaz Rezaeian, Peter M. Powers, Allison Shumway, Mark D. Petersen, Nicolas Luco, Arthur Frankel, Morgan P. Moschetti, Eric M. Thompson, Daniel McNamara

A probabilistic framework to model distributions of VS30

The time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m depth from the ground surface, or VS30⁠, is often used as a predictor to describe local site effects in ground‐motion models. Although VS30 is typically determined from in situ measurements, it is not always feasible to obtain such measurements due to project restrictions or site accessibility. This motivates the development and use of proxy‐
Authors
Utkarsh Mital, Sean K Ahdi, Julie A Herrick, Junko Iwahashi, Alexandros Savvaidis, Alan Yong

Rapid strain release on the Bear River fault zone, Utah–Wyoming—The impact of preexisting structure on the rupture behavior of a new normal fault

Earthquake clustering (grouping in space and time) is a widely observed mode of strain release in the upper crust, although this behavior on individual faults is a departure from classic elastic rebound theory. In this study, we consider factors responsible for a cluster of earthquakes on the Bear River fault zone (BRF), a recently activated, 44-km-long normal fault on the eastern margin of Basin
Authors
Suzanne Hecker, David P. Schwartz, Stephen B. DeLong

Electrical conductivity of pure CO2 hydrate and CH4 hydrate: Role of the guest molecule

To conclude a series of DOE-sponsored laboratory experiments in which our team measured electrical conductivity of methane hydrate-bearing samples, we investigated electrical conductivity of CO2 hydrate for direct comparison with methane hydrate. Their surprisingly distinct signatures could aid in the monitoring of CO2 in certain deep marine environments. To the best of our knowledge these are the
Authors
Laura A. Stern, S. Constable, Ryan Lu, Wyatt L. Du Frane, J. Murray Roberts

Expected warning times from the ShakeAlert earthquake early warning system for earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest

The ShakeAlert® earthquake early warning system has been live since October 2019 for the testing of public alerting to mobile devices in California and will soon begin testing this modality in Oregon and Washington. The Pacific Northwest presents new challenges and opportunities for ShakeAlert owing to the different types of earthquakes that occur in the Cascadia subduction zone. Many locations in
Authors
Jeffrey J. McGuire, Deborah E. Smith, Arthur D. Frankel, Erin A. Wirth, Sara K. McBride, Robert M. de Groot

Commentary: The role of geodetic algorithms for earthquake early warning in Cascadia

The ShakeAlert earthquake early warning (EEW) system issues public alerts in California and will soon extend to Oregon and Washington. The Cascadia subduction zone presents significant new challenges and opportunities for EEW. Initial publications suggested that EEW algorithms based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data could provide improved warning for intraslab events and dramatical
Authors
Jeffrey McGuire, Sarah E. Minson, Jessica R. Murray, Benjamin A. Brooks

Characterizing stress orientations in southern Kansas

Induced seismicity predominantly occurs along faults that are optimally oriented to the local principal compressive stress direction, and the characterization of these stress orientations is an important component of understanding seismic hazards. The seismicity rate in southern Kansas rapidly increased in 2013 primarily due to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater into the Arbuckle Group. P
Authors
Robert Skoumal, Elizabeth S. Cochran, Kayla A. Kroll, Justin Rubinstein, Devin McPhillips

Final report to SCEC on the October 27, 2020 SCEC workshop ‘dynamic rupture TAG – The 2020 ingredients workshop – Rock properties (SCEC rroject 20188)’

This workshop was the third in our series of four SCEC5 workshops designed to evaluate the importance of each of the four ingredients required for dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. The four ingredients are: fault geometry, fault friction, rock properties, and initial stress conditions (Figure 1). The previous two workshops in the ‘ingredients’ series were the November 2018 SCEC workshop th
Authors
Ruth A. Harris, Michael Barall

Response of an asymmetrical five-story building in Fairbanks, Alaska during the November 30, 2018 M7.1 Anchorage, Alaska earthquake

A recently constructed, five-story, asymmetrical steel building on the campus of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks was equipped with a strong-motion array that recorded the M7.1 Anchorage earthquake of November 30, 2018 at an epicentral distance of 408 km. The largest recorded peak accelerations at the basement and top of the building are 0.021g and 0.071g, respectively. The steel building is de
Authors
Mehmet Çelebi, Natalia Ruppert