Publications

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) impacts climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1-4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the 20th Century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6; however, confidence in future IOD changes is limited by known biases in model representations of the IOD7 and the lack of in

The moment magnitude 7.2 El Mayor−Cucapah (EMC) earthquake of 2010 in northern Baja California, Mexico produced a cascading rupture that propagated through a geometrically diverse network of intersecting faults. These faults have been exhumed from depths of 6−10 km since the late Miocene based on low-temperature thermochronology, synkinematic alteration, and deformational fabrics. Coseismic slip o

The first Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3–epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (UCERF3‐ETAS) aftershock simulations were running on a high‐performance computing cluster within 33 min of the 4 July 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake. UCERF3‐ETAS, an extension of the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), is the first comprehensive, fault‐based, epide

We develop a semiautomated method for estimating with second seismic moments the directivity, rupture area, duration, and centroid velocity of earthquakes. The method is applied to 41 southern California earthquakes with magnitude in the range 3.5–5.2 and provides stable results for 28 events. Apparent source time functions (ASTFs) of P and S phases are derived using deconvolution with three stack

Sedimentary basins in the Puget Sound region, Washington State, increase ground‐motion intensity and duration of shaking during local earthquakes. We analyze Pacific Northwest Seismic Network and U.S. Geological Survey strong‐motion recordings of five local earthquakes (M 3.9–6.8), including the 2001 Nisqually earthquake, to characterize sedimentary basin effects within the Seattle and Tacoma basi

Plastic faulting is a brittle‐like failure phenomenon exhibited by water ice and several other rock types under confinement. It is suspected to be the mechanism of deep earthquakes and extreme cases of shear localization in shallow rocks. Unlike ordinary Coulombic failure, plastic faulting is characterized by a pressure‐independent failure strength and fault plane oriented 45° to maximum principal

This workshop was the second of a series of four SCEC5 workshops designed to evaluate the importance of each of the four ingredients required for dynamic earthquake rupture simulations. The four ingredients are: initial stress conditions, fault geometry, rock properties, and fault friction (Figure 1). This workshop included a range of views of how fault friction operates in the Earth, based on i

Ground motion simulation validation is an important and necessary task toward establishing the efficacy of physics-based ground motion simulations for seismic hazard analysis and earthquake engineering applications. This article presents a comprehensive validation of the commonly used Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology with a recently developed three-dimension

Since 2015 the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programmes and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and

Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as s

AbstractAftershocks (earthquakes clustered spatially and chronologically near the occurrence of a causative earthquake) are ongoing in southwestern Puerto Rico after a series of earthquakes, which include a magnitude 6.4 earthquake that occurred near Barrio Indios, Guayanilla, on January 7, 2020, and affected the surrounding area. This report estimates the expected duration of these aftershocks by

Modern seismology has been able to take advantage of several technological advances. These include feedback loops in the seismometer, specialized digitizers with absolute timing, and compression formats for storing data. While all of these advances have helped to improve the field, they can also leave newcomers a bit confused. Our goal here is to give a brief overview of how recordings of seism