Publications
Publications, scientific literature, and information products from the Land Change Science Program.
Filter Total Items: 564
Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change
State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response to
Authors
Colin J. Daniel, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Leonardo Frid, Marie-Josée Fortin
Landscape-scale variation in canopy water content of giant sequoias during drought
Recent drought (2012–2016) caused unprecedented foliage dieback in giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum), a species endemic to the western slope of the southern Sierra Nevada in central California. As part of an effort to understand and map sequoia response to droughts, we studied the patterns of remotely sensed canopy water content (CWC), both within and among sequoia groves in two successive
Authors
Tarin Paz-Kagan, Nicolas R. Vaughn, Roberta E. Martin, Philip G. Brodrick, Nathan L. Stephenson, Adrian Das, Koren R. Nydick, Gregory P. Asner
Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin
Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristi
Authors
Stephanie A. McAfee, Gregory T. Pederson, Connie A. Woodhouse, Gregory J. McCabe
Organic carbon burial in global lakes and reservoirs
Burial in sediments removes organic carbon (OC) from the short-term biosphere-atmosphere carbon (C) cycle, and therefore prevents greenhouse gas production in natural systems. Although OC burial in lakes and reservoirs is faster than in the ocean, the magnitude of inland water OC burial is not well constrained. Here we generate the first global-scale and regionally resolved estimate of modern OC b
Authors
Raquel Mendonça, Roger A. Müller, David W. Clow, Charles Verpoorter, Peter Raymond, Lars Tranvik, Sebastian Sobek
Comparing catchment hydrologic response to a regional storm using specific conductivity sensors
A better understanding of stormwater generation and solute sources is needed to improve the protection of aquatic ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health from large runoff events. Much of our understanding of water and solutes produced during stormflow comes from studies of individual, small headwater catchments. This study compared many different types of catchments during a single large eve
Authors
Ashley Inserillo, Mark B. Green, James B. Shanley, Joseph Boyer
Patterns and correlates of giant sequoia foliage dieback during California’s 2012–2016 hotter drought
Hotter droughts – droughts in which unusually high temperatures exacerbate the effects of low precipitation – are expected to increase in frequency and severity in coming decades, challenging scientists and managers to identify which parts of forested landscapes may be most vulnerable. In 2014, in the middle of California’s historically unprecedented 2012–2016 hotter drought, we noticed apparently
Authors
Nathan L. Stephenson, Adrian J. Das, Nicholas J. Ampersee, Kathleen G. Cahill, Anthony C. Caprio, John E. Sanders, A. Park Williams
Perspectives on chemical oceanography in the 21st century: Participants of the COME ABOARD Meeting examine aspects of the field in the context of 40 years of DISCO
The questions that chemical oceanographers prioritize over the coming decades, and the methods we use to address these questions, will define our field's contribution to 21st century science. In recognition of this, the U.S. National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration galvanized a community effort (the Chemical Oceanography MEeting: A BOttom-up Approach to Resea
Authors
Andrea J. Fassbender, Hilary I. Palevsky, Todd R. Martz, Anitra E. Ingalls, Martha Gledhill, Sarah E. Fawcett, Jay Brandes, Lihini Aluwihare, Robert M. Anderson, Sara Bender, Ed Boyle, Debbie Bronk, Ken Buesseler, David J. Burdige, Karen Casciotti, Hilary Close, Maureen Conte, Greg Cutter, Meg Estapa, Katja Fennel, Sara Ferron, Brian Glazer, Miguel Goni, Max Grand, Chris Guay, Mariko Hatta, Chris Hayes, Tristan Horner, Ellery Ingall, Kenneth G. Johnson, Laurie Juranek, Angela Knapp, Phoebe Lam, George Luther, Paty Matrai, David Nicholson, Adina Paytan, Robert Pellenbarg, Kim Popendorf, Christopher M. Reddy, Kathleen Ruttenberg, Chris Sabine, Frank Sansone, Nayrah Shaltout, Liz Sikes, Eric T. Sundquist, David Valentine, Zhao (Aleck) Wang, Sam Wilson, Pamela Barrett, Melanie Behrens, Anna Belcher, Lauren Biermann, Rene Boiteau, Jennifer Clarke, Jamie Collins, Alysha Coppola, Alina M. Ebling, Fenix Garcia-Tigreros, Johanna Goldman, Elisa F. Guallart, William Haskell, Sarah Hurley, David Janssen, Winn Johnson, Sinikka Lennhartz, Shuting Liu, Shaily Rahman, Daisy Ray, Amit Sarkar, Zvika Steiner, Brittany Widner, Bo Yang
Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change
With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit f
Authors
Tamara Wilson, Benjamin M. Sleeter, D. Richard Cameron
Evidence for a climate-induced ecohydrological state shift in wetland ecosystems of the southern Prairie Pothole Region
Changing magnitude, frequency, and timing of precipitation can influence aquatic-system hydrological, geochemical, and biological processes, in some cases resulting in system-wide shifts to an alternate state. Since the early 1990s, the southern Prairie Pothole Region has been subjected to an extended period of increased wetness resulting in marked changes to aquatic systems defining this region.
Authors
Owen P. McKenna, David M. Mushet, Donald O. Rosenberry, James W. LaBaugh
Long-term persistence and fire resilience of oak shrubfields in dry conifer forests of northern New Mexico
Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of extant Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii) shrubfields with
Authors
Christopher H. Guiterman, Ellis Margolis, Craig D. Allen, Donald A. Falk, Thomas W. Swetnam
Characterizing interactions between fire and other disturbances and their impacts on tree mortality in western U.S. Forests
Increasing evidence that pervasive warming trends are altering disturbance regimes and their interactions with fire has generated substantial interest and debate over the implications of these changes. Previous work has primarily focused on conditions that promote non-additive interactions of linked and compounded disturbances, but the spectrum of potential interaction patterns has not been fully
Authors
Jeffrey M. Kane, J. Morgan Varner, Margaret R. Metz, Phillip J. van Mantgem
Increasing floodplain connectivity through urban stream restoration increases nutrient and sediment retention
Stream restoration practices frequently aim to increase connectivity between the stream channel and its floodplain to improve channel stability and enhance water quality through sediment trapping and nutrient retention. To measure the effectiveness of restoration and to understand the drivers of these functional responses, we monitored five restored urban streams that represent a range of channel
Authors
Sara K. McMillan, Gregory Noe