Masting is shaped by tree-level attributes and stand structure, more than climate, in a Rocky Mountain conifer species

Masting describes the spatiotemporal variability in seed production by a population of plants. Both abiotic and biotic factors drive masting, but the importance of these factors can vary among individuals and populations. To better understand how a changing climate, altered disturbance regimes, or novel management strategies might affect future seed production, we quantified the joint influence of multiple factors on annual cone production in a widespread conifer species, Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. scopulorum). We reconstructed individual-level annual cone production across climatic gradients using the cone abscission scar method, and explored the causes and drivers of masting in this species. Site-level responses between weather and masting were highly variable, notably differing in the strength of their response to either summer or spring weather. In addition, the relationship to summer precipitation during cone initiation, a primary driver of annual seed production in this species, was strongest at hotter and drier sites. Additionally, we found that masting was strongly influenced by tree- and stand-level factors such as diameter, age, and local neighborhood density, all of which were associated with the mean, interannual variability, and between-tree synchrony of cone production at the individual-level. Larger and older trees produced more cones, more frequently, and with less synchrony than smaller and younger trees. Open grown trees experiencing lower levels of neighborhood competition also produced more cones with less interannual variability, but with higher between-tree synchrony. Because tree- and stand-level traits appear to regulate seed production more strongly than climate or weather in this species, management interventions targeting these factors could be powerful tools to manage future tree recruitment. Thus, current efforts to reduce stand density and conserve large trees in some ponderosa pine forests may enhance tree-level seed production and reduce variability in seed crops among years.