Two-dimensional hydraulic model for the Chain of Lakes on the Fox River near McHenry, Illinois

Forecasts of flows entering and leaving the Chain of Lakes on the Fox River in northeastern Illinois are critical information to water-resource managers operating the Stratton Dam at McHenry, Illinois. These managers determine the optimal operation of the Stratton Dam at McHenry, Ill., to manage Chain of Lakes pool levels and to help mitigate flooding in the Chain of Lakes system. In 2020, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Illinois Department of Natural Resources–Office of Water Resources (IDNR–OWR) began a cooperative study to develop a system to enable engineers and planners to simulate and communicate water-surface elevations and flows and to proactively prepare for runoff events forecasted for the Chain of Lakes. The hydraulic model described in this report may be helpful to the IDNR–OWR for optimizing the operation of the Stratton Dam and includes the implementation of three newly installed torque-tube crest gates that became operational in 2020.

The hydraulic model for the Chain of Lakes was developed using the Hydrologic Engineering Center–River Analysis System program (version 6.5). The hydraulic model was used to simulate water-surface elevations and flows through the 18.5-mile Chain of Lakes system to 1.7 miles downstream from the Stratton Dam. Five USGS streamgages within the study area were used as reference points for model calibration and initial water-surface elevations for beginning a simulation. The hydraulic model was calibrated to three runoff events that incorporated the design specifications and observed gate operations of the Stratton Dam; furthermore, the hydraulic model simulated a validation event and a substantial flooding event during July 2017. The July 2017 event predated the torque-tube crest gate installation but nevertheless tested the performance of the model for such a substantial event. The model simulation results were a good fit to observed records at USGS streamgages with simulated peak water-surface elevations within −0.36–0.15 foot of observed events. The hydraulic model was then implemented into a forecast workflow that streamlines implementation of model inputs and documents the model outputs tailored to IDNR–OWS Stratton Dam operations and interpretations of simulated water-surface elevations and flows.