Morgan T Page
Morgan Page is a geophysicist in the Earthquake Science Center.
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 37
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of...
Authors
Ned Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn Biasi, Thomas E. Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Peter Bird, Karen Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximillan J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type...
Authors
Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximillan J. Werner
Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability
Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Karen Felzer, Andrew J. Michael
The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project
Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in...
Authors
P. Martin Mai, Danijel Schorlemmer, Morgan T. Page, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Kimiyuki Asano, Mathieu Causse, Susana Custodio, Wenyuan Fan, Gaetano Festa, Martin Galis, Frantisek Gallovic, Walter Imperatori, Martin Käser, Dmytro Malytskyy, Ryo Okuwaki, Frederick Pollitz, Luca Passone, Hoby N. T. Razafindrakoto, Haruko Sekiguchi, Seok Goo Song, Surendra N. Somala, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Cedric Twardzik, Martin van Driel, Jagdish C. Vyas, Rongjiang Wang, Yuji Yagi, Olaf Zielke
Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected
A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults...
Authors
Nicholas van der Elst, Morgan T. Page, Deborah A. Weiser, Thomas H W Goebel, S. Mehran Hosseini
Potentially induced earthquakes during the early twentieth century in the Los Angeles Basin
Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater (Hough and Page, 2015; Frohlich et al., 2016). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded that there is no evidence for significant induced activity in the greater Los...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page
The petroleum geologist and the insurance policy
In a recent study, Hough and Page (2015) presented several lines of evidence suggesting that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century, including the Mw 5.7 El Reno earthquake of 9 April 1952, were likely induced by wastewater injection and possibly secondary oil recovery operations. We undertook an archival search for accounts of this event, which...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page
A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page
Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution
The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Karen Felzer
Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that...
Authors
Ned Field, Glenn Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Thomas E. Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, Yuehua Zeng
Artificial seismic acceleration
In their 2013 paper, Bouchon, Durand, Marsan, Karabulut, 3 and Schmittbuhl (BDMKS) claim to see significant accelerating seismicity before M 6.5 interplate mainshocks, but not before intraplate mainshocks, reflecting a preparatory process before large events. We concur with the finding of BDMKS that their interplate dataset has significantly more fore- shocks than their intraplate...
Authors
Karen Felzer, Morgan T. Page, Andrew J. Michael
The UCERF3 grand inversion: Solving for the long‐term rate of ruptures in a fault system
We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We employ a parallel simulated annealing algorithm to solve for the long‐term rate of all ruptures that extend through the seismogenic thickness on major mapped faults in...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Peter M. Powers
Science and Products
Filter Total Items: 37
A synoptic view of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of...
Authors
Ned Field, Thomas H. Jordan, Morgan T. Page, Kevin R. Milner, Bruce E. Shaw, Timothy E. Dawson, Glenn Biasi, Thomas E. Parsons, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Andrew J. Michael, Ray J. Weldon, Peter M. Powers, Kaj M. Johnson, Yuehua Zeng, Peter Bird, Karen Felzer, Nicholas van der Elst, Christopher Madden, Ramon Arrowsmith, Maximillan J. Werner, Wayne R. Thatcher
A spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3‐ETAS): Toward an operational earthquake forecast
We, the ongoing Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, present a spatiotemporal clustering model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3), with the goal being to represent aftershocks, induced seismicity, and otherwise triggered events as a potential basis for operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). Specifically, we add an epidemic‐type...
Authors
Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Thomas H. Jordan, Andrew J. Michael, Bruce E. Shaw, Maximillan J. Werner
Three ingredients for Improved global aftershock forecasts: Tectonic region, time-dependent catalog incompleteness, and inter-sequence variability
Following a large earthquake, seismic hazard can be orders of magnitude higher than the long‐term average as a result of aftershock triggering. Because of this heightened hazard, emergency managers and the public demand rapid, authoritative, and reliable aftershock forecasts. In the past, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) aftershock forecasts following large global earthquakes have been...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Nicholas van der Elst, Jeanne L. Hardebeck, Karen Felzer, Andrew J. Michael
The Earthquake‐Source Inversion Validation (SIV) Project
Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions infer the (time‐dependent) displacement on the rupture surface from geophysical data. The resulting earthquake source models document the complexity of the rupture process. However, multiple source models for the same earthquake, obtained by different research teams, often exhibit remarkable dissimilarities. To address the uncertainties in...
Authors
P. Martin Mai, Danijel Schorlemmer, Morgan T. Page, Jean-Paul Ampuero, Kimiyuki Asano, Mathieu Causse, Susana Custodio, Wenyuan Fan, Gaetano Festa, Martin Galis, Frantisek Gallovic, Walter Imperatori, Martin Käser, Dmytro Malytskyy, Ryo Okuwaki, Frederick Pollitz, Luca Passone, Hoby N. T. Razafindrakoto, Haruko Sekiguchi, Seok Goo Song, Surendra N. Somala, Kiran K. S. Thingbaijam, Cedric Twardzik, Martin van Driel, Jagdish C. Vyas, Rongjiang Wang, Yuji Yagi, Olaf Zielke
Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected
A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults...
Authors
Nicholas van der Elst, Morgan T. Page, Deborah A. Weiser, Thomas H W Goebel, S. Mehran Hosseini
Potentially induced earthquakes during the early twentieth century in the Los Angeles Basin
Recent studies have presented evidence that early to mid‐twentieth‐century earthquakes in Oklahoma and Texas were likely induced by fossil fuel production and/or injection of wastewater (Hough and Page, 2015; Frohlich et al., 2016). Considering seismicity from 1935 onward, Hauksson et al. (2015) concluded that there is no evidence for significant induced activity in the greater Los...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page
The petroleum geologist and the insurance policy
In a recent study, Hough and Page (2015) presented several lines of evidence suggesting that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century, including the Mw 5.7 El Reno earthquake of 9 April 1952, were likely induced by wastewater injection and possibly secondary oil recovery operations. We undertook an archival search for accounts of this event, which...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page
A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?
Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in...
Authors
Susan E. Hough, Morgan T. Page
Southern San Andreas Fault seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution
The magnitudes of any collection of earthquakes nucleating in a region are generally observed to follow the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) distribution. On some major faults, however, paleoseismic rates are higher than a G-R extrapolation from the modern rate of small earthquakes would predict. This, along with other observations, led to formulation of the characteristic earthquake hypothesis...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Karen Felzer
Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)
The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that...
Authors
Ned Field, Glenn Biasi, Peter Bird, Timothy E. Dawson, Karen Felzer, David D. Jackson, Kaj M. Johnson, Thomas H. Jordan, Christopher Madden, Andrew J. Michael, Kevin R. Milner, Morgan T. Page, Thomas E. Parsons, Peter M. Powers, Bruce E. Shaw, Wayne R. Thatcher, Ray J. Weldon, Yuehua Zeng
Artificial seismic acceleration
In their 2013 paper, Bouchon, Durand, Marsan, Karabulut, 3 and Schmittbuhl (BDMKS) claim to see significant accelerating seismicity before M 6.5 interplate mainshocks, but not before intraplate mainshocks, reflecting a preparatory process before large events. We concur with the finding of BDMKS that their interplate dataset has significantly more fore- shocks than their intraplate...
Authors
Karen Felzer, Morgan T. Page, Andrew J. Michael
The UCERF3 grand inversion: Solving for the long‐term rate of ruptures in a fault system
We present implementation details, testing, and results from a new inversion‐based methodology, known colloquially as the “grand inversion,” developed for the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). We employ a parallel simulated annealing algorithm to solve for the long‐term rate of all ruptures that extend through the seismogenic thickness on major mapped faults in...
Authors
Morgan T. Page, Ned Field, Kevin R. Milner, Peter M. Powers